The Georgia Tech Team That Could Actually Beat UGA (& Win the ACC)
Just an old sweet song keeps Georgia on my mind.
- Ray Charles, musician
I’m not saying it’ll be easy, but this year’s Georgia Tech (GT) squad has a legit shot at securing its first dub over its in-state rival in eight seasons. New school college football fans probably don’t even know that the Dawgs vs. Jackets rivalry used to be one of the greatest showdowns in all of CFB. In fact, there was a stretch from about 1939 to 1964 where the only issue with this rivalry was that it was probably too slanted towards the Yellow Jackets (imagine that).
Lately, things have been a bit different. And sure, there aren’t many teams that are capable of going toe-to-toe with the current iteration of Kirby’s UGA program. However, Georgia Tech was one of the few that could hang last season—something that can’t be said about programs like Michigan, Florida State and LSU over the past couple of years. I’d link the highlights to the UGA vs. Michigan and FSU games but I fear the authorities would come looking for me if I did.
One reason for Tech’s success last November was the style of offence that Buster Faulker and the offensive staff put together. QB Haynes King gave the Bulldogs’ front seven plenty of trouble, and this proved to be a formula that Alabama could also use a week later in the SECCG. In fact, one might argue that Kirby was so afraid of Milroe pulling a Haynes King, that he probably over-schemed the game plan.
Indeed, this rivalry—at its best—is one of the most electric in all of CFB. That’s in part due to the immense amount of talent (a lot of it going overlooked) in the state of Georgia. While Kirby and Co. have leveraged their latest success into a more national recruiting strategy, programs like Tech have benefited from the in-state spill off. Names like Eric Singleton, Jamal Haynes, and Isiah Canion come to mind.
Sprinkle in a number of hits via the transfer portal, and all of a sudden you have my attention. Haynes King’s second act has been nothing short of remarkable. Once an afterthought at Texas A&M, King put together a very productive season in his first year in Atlanta last year. Players like Christian Leary, Dominick Blaylock and Chase Lane have also added a level of depth at WR that has not been here for many years.
Throw in over 70% of snaps returning on the OL, and now you have a very sweet song indeed.
Coaching & System
OC PPG AVERAGE — QB1: 24.6 — RB1: 13.1 — WR1: 13.61
I used OC Brent Faulkner’s PPG averages because he’s probably the most responsible for the play calling of the offence. Faulkner joined Tech by way of UGA in the 2023 offseason, after spending three seasons (2020-22) as a quality control analyst with the Dawgs. Before UGA, Faulkner was the OC of Southern Miss (2019), Arkansas State (2016-18), and Middle Tennessee State (2011-2015). He also spent time at the FCS level as the OC of Murray State (2010).
The sample of data that the PPG averages are pulling from is 2018-2023. Of Faulkner’s time spent as an OC, the WR position is probably the most notable, with multiple 1000-yard seasons in his track record. There are no 1000-yard rushers in Faulkner’s history so far.
Head coach Brent Key was promoted to head coach from interim coach in the 2023 offseason. He previously served as the associate head coach and OL coach at Tech from 2019-2022, OL coach at Alabama (2016-2018), and served in various roles at UCF from 2005-2015.
Below is a summary of each coach’s PPG averages per position, along with early projections based on one of my subscriber’s models. The early projection numbers can be ignored at this stage, so don’t be alarmed if a number looks much lower or higher than you’re expecting.
As far as tendencies, Brent Key’s teams typically skew heavier run, with a ~56/44 run pass split, while Faulkner is similar, but a bit more balanced with a ~53/47 split. The Yellow Jackets were the nation’s 45th fastest offence last year, averaging 25.2 seconds per play.
As mentioned above, Georgia Tech returns 73% of the snaps on the OL from a year ago. That continuity should provide a lot of benefits in both the pass and run games. For more details on Faulkner’s background, you can follow this link.
Personnel
I can’t remember the last time Tech had this amount of talent all over the field on offence. Haynes King has been a revelation at QB, but where the Jackets have really done well is at WR.
QB Haynes King — ADP: 59.52
Haynes King, in a standard four point passing TD format, averaged just shy of 25 PPG last season. His season-high was 36 vs. UNC, where he passed for four scores on 23/30 passing for 287 yards along with eight carries for 90 yards.
On the year, he totalled 37 scores (10 coming on the ground), and the game plan should be similar in 2024. I love his rushing upside, and this is a system that appears to really work with his strengths.
On one hand you’d expect even better results in year two of the program; on the other, the schedule is a bit tighter this year compared to last, so that might put a damper on things.
His current ADP has him going in around the fifth round, which feels about right for his profile given the other QBs that are usually available there.
RB/WR Jamal Haynes — ADP: 112.7
The 5’9, 180 pound Swiss army knife of the team, Haynes is one of the more intriguing players in all of CFB this year. He has WR eligibility on Fantrax, but he takes the majority of his reps out of the backfield (174 carries to 20 receptions in 2023).
He averaged over 14 PPG in 1PPR formats last year, and now the backfield is even more open with Dontae Smith moving on. He won’t be used like a bellcow, but he may see an increase on his 14.9 touches per game (again, as a player with WR eligibility, that’s pretty gnarly). That fact makes him a no-brainer to be selected in the range he’s going right now.
His average ADP is over 110, but his April ADP according to Campus2Canton was 78.7, suggesting that people are starting to catch onto his appeal as a dual eligible player. He’ll probably continue to climb through the summer.
For context this will be Haynes’ fourth year of college football, and he had yet to carry or receive the football once in his career prior to 2023. Talk about a breakout player last season.
WR Eric Singleton — ADP: 98.5
Georgia Tech found one of the many underrated gems in the state of Georgia in the 2023 class. Eric Singleton, a wide receiver from Douglasville, GA, finished his true freshman campaign with 48 receptions (on 82 targets) for 714 yards and six TDs (13.1 PPG).
While his build (5’11, 173) might suggest that he’d be a slot player, he actually primarily played on the boundary for the Hornets this past season. That’s probably partly because sophomore receiver Malik Rutherford held down the slot role but also partly because Singleton is just a stud.
The former three-star out of Georgia also held offers from the likes of Kansas State, Auburn, Texas A&M, and Utah, among others. He didn’t receive a qualitative evaluation from 247 Sports, but they did list his track accolades and high school stats:
Also runs track. As a junior, placed 10th at the Georgia AAAAA state meet in the 100-meter dash. Was also a state qualifier in the 400-meter dash and the long jump. Season-bests in the 100 include: 10.68 (3.1), 10.69, 10.72 (1.4), 10.93 (2.1). 10.95 and 11.01 (-1.3).
2022: As a senior, hauled in 65 passes for 1,115 yards and 12 TD. Also averaged 23.6 yards per kick return taking on to the house. Key player for an Alexander squad that competed in Georgia’s AAAAAA classification.
You didn’t need to see the track stuff to know that he’s fast. The fact that he’s playing on the boundary at 5’11″ tells us all we need to know about his athleticism.
WR Malik Rutherford — ADP: 313.7
Rutherford is the aforementioned slot receiver on the team and at 5’9, 165 pounds, it’s not hard to see why the Miami native was given that role in the scheme. He enters his fourth season of college football after spending the last three in Atlanta.
His 2023 numbers were solid, finishing with 46 receptions (65 targets) for 502 yards and four scores (9.5 PPG), which was his best statistical season of his career.
I can understand the rationale of those who may throw a dart throw on him late. He had a few notable single-season highs of 28 and 18 points vs. UNC and BGSU. He feels like a fringe player for CFF purposes, and is only really a viable option in niche formats.
WR Chase Lane — ADP: NA
Buster Faulkner was complimentary of Lane’s development this offseason, here’s a direct quote form the second year OC:
He looks great and has had an unbelievable off season. He probably looks faster and more explosive than he did last season
That’s certainly encouraging, but there are also only so many touches to go around. Lane’s first game with the Yellow Jackets was solid, finishing with three receptions on four targets for 60 yards and a score (16 points) vs. Louisville. He was injured the next game vs. FCS program South Carolina State and was not the same on his return.
Given that Lane has yet to carve out a significant role for himself in his first five seasons of CFB (Texas A&M 2019-22, GT 2023-present), you’d think that we could probably forget about him.
However, this staff’s ability to resuscitate Haynes King’s stock has me on notice. If you’re taking deep dart throws, Rutherford makes sense, but so does Lane.
WR Christian Leary — ADP: NA
Leary has a very similar profile to Lane, in that he is a veteran WR who began his career elsewhere (Alabama 2021-2022). His first season with GT was okay, he caught 25 passes (36 targets) for 309 yards and two scores in 13 games.
The Florida native has a lot of speed, but I don’t know that he’ll have a significant role in this team as I’d expect Singleton and Lane to take the majority of boundary snaps, and Rutherford to reprise his role in the slot. Jamal Haynes should also see the occasional snap in the slot.
Closing
There are several ACC programs returning a lot of snaps in 2024 (e.g., Virginia Tech, Miami), but Georgia Tech should not be dismissed. This will be a veteran program led by an experienced QB and a creative OC—a formula we’ve seen yield successful results elsewhere in CFB—this upcoming season. They should be able to go toe-to-toe with the heavyweights on their schedule.
I’m not saying they’re going to win all of their games, far from it, but this should be one of the better years for GT football in a while. That being said, they caught a lot of people by surprise last year, they won’t have that privilege this season.
Overall, my CFF perspective is that the schedule is my largest concern with each of the individual players’ profiles. Because they play a week zero game vs. FSU, they have three BYE weeks during the CFF period (week five, ten, and twelve).
The (likely) hardest game of the season is (as usual) the final game on their schedule—the in-state rival UGA Bulldogs. They also play Notre Dame and Miami. Even in those tougher games their players should be able to be productive, but that remains a question mark. ◾
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These numbers are derived from one of the subscribers’ models: Joe Arpasi, and are measured in four point passing TD and 0.5 PPR formats. Sample size is 2018-2023.
ADP according to Campus2Canton.