The Penn State Team That Finally Gets Over the Hump?
Faith, Andy, is the belief in something for which we have no evidence. It doesn't apply to this situation.
- Charles Wheeler, Philadelphia (1993)
CFB degenerates could be forgiven for feeling like it was Groundhog Day as the final whistle blew on November 2nd, signalling the end of 2024’s edition of the PSU/OSU game. The Buckeyes, as usual, dispatched (on the road, no less) their old B1G East rival Penn State behind a stout run defence and a methodical offence.
I’m being fairly generous to PSU here calling this game a rivalry as it is sort of just a rivalry in name alone lately. Indeed, there will be some Buckeye fans that take scoff at me even calling PSU a rival, and they probably have a point. James Franklin has only beaten OSU once in his 11 seasons with the Lions, and that was with a unicorn at tailback—the GOAT, Sa’quon Barkley.
At least this year it was a competitive game, with the Lions falling by only one score at the end. Though as someone who watched the game it felt a little more lopsided than that. Normally this loss would be the kiss of death for a proud Nittany Lions program, but in the new era of the CFP, they figure to slot in somewhere around the six or seven seed (hosting a playoff game). Not a bad arrangement for PSU if you ask me.
Some will point to James Franklins’ track record in quote un-quote ‘big games’ as a reason why PSU will never get over the hump. Though I’m old enough to remember a similar criticism of one Kirby Smart (more specifically in relation to beating Alabama in the big game), before he ultimately climbed the mountain top doing that very thing.
The task to win a natty feels eerily similar for PSU, where somewhere in the back of my mind I just can’t picture them getting to that trophy without having to beat OSU at some point along the way. Ironically, in that first national championship for Kirby, UGA fell to Alabama earlier in the year—could something similar happen for PSU?
The old adage in CFB with regards to rematches says “it’s hard to beat the same team twice”. While there is some credence to this, the overall stats (at least up to 2019) tell a different story, with the same team winning a rematch 44 out of 78 times. There is also an old article from 2012 about this topic.
Nonetheless, with arguably the best individual talent PSU has had (Tyler Warren) since Barkley, two elite tailbacks and an improved Drew Allar, along with the ever present stout PSU defence, it feels fair to ask the question once more: is this the year?
Coaching & System
PSU’s offence in 2023 was simply not good enough for PSU to ever overcome a team like OSU, or a good version of Michigan. Franklin and co. attempted to rectify this issue via the hiring of former KU OC Andy Kotelnicki. Kotelnicki, having been an understudy of one of the most degenerate pig farmers in CFB—Lance ‘The Legend’ Leipold, brought with him several years of experience using dual RBs effectively (and creatively) in the run game. It seemed to be a perfect fit given PSU’s personnel.
Many may be surprised to know that PSU is currently second in the B1G in total yards per game behind only Oregon. Now, as I always say with any team stats in CFB, these are heavily skewed by the sample of teams you get on your schedule. It’s not a coincidence that when you compare SOS and where teams rank at the top of the leaderboard in offence and defensive statistics, that there is a high correlation between poor schedules and strong statistical performances (this is also just common sense).
Nonetheless, no matter which metric you look at offensively, it’s safe to say the Lions have improved on that front compared to 2023. In 2024, PSU is averaging 445 yards per game, a decent jump from 400 in 2023. Most of that jump has come in the form of passing yards, as PSU averaged 215 in 2023, and now 253 in 2024. Rushing-wise, PSU actually led the B1G in yards per game in 2023, but despite improving on that front as well, they are actually second this year behind Iowa’s resurgent run game via Kaleb Johnson, who has looked like a Heisman candidate for most of the season.
In terms of the metric that matters the most: PPG, the data doesn’t tell the full story. On the surface, PSU has taken a step back as they averaged 36 PPG (first in the B1G at season’s end in 2023), and now only average 32, which is fourth.
However, those 2023 stats are including Michigan’s CFP run, which skewed their average lower as they played two strong opponents, and also OSU’s abysmal performance vs. Missouri, where they lost 14-3. PSU also lost in their bowl game vs. a mid-tier SEC school in Ole Miss, but they at least scored 25 in that one, which wouldn’t have lowered their average much.
Here is a table showing the historical CFF averages in terms of half PPR PPG at each position under both Franklin and Kotelnicki:
How did this season compare to the historical averages? The QB, Drew Allar, currently averages 18.19 PPG in four point passing TD formats. Singleton and Allen hover around 17 and 11 PPG at RB, which is pretty spot on to Kotelnicki’s average.
At WR, Harrison Wallace leads the team at 10 PPG in full PPR, so likely his half PPR average is closer to 7-8 PPG, which is a disappointment under both coaches, but not all that surprising given that we knew Drew Allar was going to be the QB again this year.
TE is where things really differ. I mentioned Tyler Warren earlier as possibly the best individual PSU skill player since Barkley, and given how much utility he provides to this offence via running, receiving and even passing, I don’t think that’s an unfair statement. You can think of him like the Cam Skattebo of PSU— the guy just does it all.
Warren currently averages an absurd 21 PPG in 1PPR formats, which ranks second only behind BGSU’s Harold Fannin. Indeed, this 2024 season has provided many strange things (huge volume of true freshmen impact players, CFF relevant service academy players), but the elite production at TE might just take the cake for most the prevalent unusual phenomenon.
Players like Warren give me, a neutral observer, hope for a team like PSU. It’s true that Football is the ultimate team game, and unlike Basketball, it’s not a given that if you have the best player on the field that your team will win most of the time, but it’s better to have more unicorns like this than not (yeah, no shit Sherlock).
Does PSU have a comparable roster talent-wise to OSU? I think so. But it is also safe to say that OSU’s roster is definitely still better than PSU’s; though to be fair that’s not saying much as I’d argue that OSU has—if not the best—one of the top three rosters in CFB.
OSU ranks highly in every defensive statistical category, but then again this is skewed by playing teams like Akron, Marshall, Nebraska, Indiana (yes, I said it), Purdue, Northwestern etc. When a comparable team talent-wise played them earlier this year in Oregon, Jordan James rushed for 115 yards (5 ypc) and a score on the currently ranked 3rd overall rush defence. That is to say, it is not impossible to run the football on the Buckeyes, which feels like something PSU will have to do to have success.
Unfortunately, when these two programs met the first time, both of PSU top runners averaged around two yards per carry each. Given the lack of explosive WRs/elite QB play, the probability that PSU beats OSU feels close to zero, regardless of how close the scoreboard is, if they can’t establish a ground game.
The other point here is that Tyler Warren only saw five targets when they played the Buckeyes. That number feels like it should be closer to his 20 target performance vs. USC than five, though understandably most teams who know how to play a lick of defence will adjust defensively to that. Evidently USC doesn’t fall under that category (shocker).
Closing
Several years ago I remember watching a Thursday night game where Minnesota opened the season vs. OSU in 2021. My first round draft pick in my home league that year, Mo Ibrahim, was having a very good night. It felt like PJ Fleck and his staff understood that they probably had less than a half dozen players on their roster that OSU would ever consider taking on theirs/put into starting positions; it just happened that the tailback and some of the OL were in that group.
While Minnesota ultimately fell short (Mo got injured in the 3rd quarter with multiple scores already and over 160 yards), the plan to make the game as much about the matchup of Minny’s run game vs. OSU’s defence felt like a sound strategy that kept the game pretty close until Mo left.
Not that Franklin nor Kotelnicki need any advice from me, but it feels like if PSU is going to get over the hump (whether that’s vs. OSU or another comparable elite team), than Tyler Warren will have to be spammed on repeat, and the offensive line has to play at a higher level vs. comparably talented defensive fronts. It’s all gravy when you’re mashing teams like Bowling Green and Purdue, but ultimately respect is earned via results in big-boy games, which is something PSU is still lacking under Franklin.
At the very least, even if PSU doesn’t see OSU again, they will have to beat a team(s) with comparable talent at some point in order to advance in the CFP. People complain about an SEC bias all the time in CFB media, and while Michigan had a good win over Alabama last year, by and large the SEC dominated the B1G in bowl games with OSU, PSU, Iowa, and Wisconsin each getting handled convincingly by Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and LSU, respectively.
This year’s CFP will likely offer an opportunity to see these two conferences matchup again in some capacity, and the first step in diminishing the so-called SEC bias will be for teams like PSU to start winning some of these big games.◾
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Grabbed and stashed Allar for next season. 📈