The Service Academy Trifecta

(Rear Admiral) 'Distinguished.' 'Distinguished.' 'Distinguished.' Yet you can't get a promotion, you won't retire, and, despite your best efforts, you refuse to die. You should be at least a two-star admiral by now, if not a senator. Yet here you are: Captain. Why is that?

It's one of life's mysteries, sir.

- Maverick, Top Gun Maverick (2022)

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Hello all, welcome back. As you may well know, we’ve already covered Navy’s QB Blake Horvath this offseason, as well as Army’s replacement for Bryson Dailey, DeWayne Coleman, so it’s only right that we give Air Force their recognition too. And look, I know Top Gun is technically based around a Navy pilot program, but all of the action is happening in the air and thus I’m deeming it appropriate to quote in an Air Force article.

Now, serious question for you: when was the last time that there were star players/CFF relevant assets at all three academies in the same season? I can’t remember one such season. What’s more, if Dailey had returned for 2025, all three of he, Horvath, and AF’s Dylan Carson would be top three/four round selections in most CFF drafts!

Indeed, 2025 is shaping up to be a big year for all three service academies. Though, of the three, Air Force has been the most consistently dangerous in churning out productive individuals (cue the music).

Dating back to 2018, at least one Falcon ‘RB’ has rushed for at least 950 yards or scored double digit rushing TDs every full season, excluding the most recent campaign.

Brad “Goose” Roberts and Emmanuel “Iceman” Michel carried the torch from 2021-2023, finishing their seasons with 299, 354, and 204 carries, respectively. Those are some premium #VolumePig carry numbers indeed.

Prior to them it was RB Kadin “Viper” Remsberg in 2019, taking 181 carries for 1050 yards and eight scores, and FB Cole “Jester” Fagan who took 185 carries for 997 yards and seven scores.

Those who’ve followed this program closely can attest that it is the FB position in this triple option offence that has dominated the rushing production lately. Both of Roberts and Michel operated out of this spot in the system, but admittedly I’m not sure if that is the case with Dylan Carson.

At 6’0, 215 pounds, it would make sense if he were the designated FB, especially considering the other runner listed near the top of the depth chart, Kade Frew, is listed at 5’9, 190 pounds.

Nonetheless, whether Carson’s the RB or FB in this system is not really our concern at this point—he already dominated the carry share in the final four games of the season, leading some to question: were these final four games a harbinger of things to come in 2025?

Given the pedigree of the system, it’s understandable that there would be some interest in this program’s backfield. As mentioned above—while service academies are typically overlooked by the CFF community (often for good reason)—AF has been the one shining light amidst a sea of CFF mediocrity. A maverick of the service academies, if you will.

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Coaching & System

RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 14.2 — OC: 14.2¹ (half ppr)

Head coach Troy Calhoun is part of a rare and exclusive group of coaches in CFB currently. Among names like Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, and Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz, Calhoun is one of the few who has been with his program for over 20 years—entering his 24th, to be exact.

Yes, that’s right, Mr. Calhoun has been the head coach of Air Force since 2007! What’s even more impressive is that his OC, Mike Thiessen, has also been with the program since 2007. Though he only became the full OC in 2015, prior to that he served as co-OC and WRs coach (I didn’t even know they had such a thing at service academies).

Table 1.

Bruv, look at those carry numbers from the 2020s. Two out of four seasons the RB1 handled 23+ totes per appearance; and nearly 20 times a game in another season.

As you’d expect, the receiving usage has been minimal at best for the RB1s in this system. That’s OK; that’s not really the appeal here.

If you isolate the last four games of last season, Carson averaged 21.75 carries per game, and rushed for 100 yards or more in three of four appearances (97 rush yards in the other). That’s pretty on par from what we saw with one of Carson’s predecessors in Brad Roberts a few seasons ago.

In terms of tendencies of the staff, the six year average is an 85% run rate. Again, that’s not surprising for a service academy. Equally unsurprising is the pace of the offence, averaging around 30 seconds per play, which is typically lower third in the FBS.

AF returns almost half of the starting snaps from a year ago along the offensive line.

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Dylan Carson (6’0, 215)

2024 RUSHING STATS: 138 - 600 - 5 (9 ppg)

Carson was a class of 2022 graduate as an unranked recruit coming out of the state of Washington. He had a ridiculously productive senior season accumulating 2671 yards and 46 touchdowns. He was a multi-sport athlete who also participated in track and basketball at the prep level.

Now, I could rehash his 2024 season in words, but (because I’m lazy and Air Force’s website does a good enough job of it already) I’m going to instead copy and paste this from Carson’s team website profile:

Played in 10 games, seven starts ... missed two due to injury … led team in rushing with 600 yards on 138 carries ... rushed for a season-high 125 yards and a career-best two touchdowns on 24 carries at San Diego State … rushed for 105 yards and a TD on 14 carries at Nevada, all in the first half ... season-long run of 50 yards, longest by a Falcon this season … rushed for a team-best 97 yards and a TD on 26 carries vs. Oregon State … rushed for 120 yards and first TD of season on career-high 33 carries vs. Fresno State … team-high 60 yards on 12 carries vs. Colorado State …

Preseason third-team all-MW by Athlon Sports, fourth-team by Phil Steele Magazine … enters the season ranked 58th in program history in career rushing yards with 1,093 … became the 63rd Falcon to top the 1,000-yard mark in his career … hit the mark in the San Diego State game.

I included this blurb because it may offer us some insight into what to make of Carson’s strange 2024 campaign. My guy saw double digit carries ONCE (12) prior to November 9th, and then all of a sudden began averaging over 20 totes per contest. What am I to make of this? Well, it seems he was dealing with an ailment for at least part of his redshirt sophomore campaign.

Yes… yes, that seems reasonable and explains the sudden uptick in carries! Except—dun dun dun—this exact same pattern played out in 2023 as well. Indeed, if you look at his game log from the 2023 season, he had one game of double digit carries prior to November 11th, and then he rattled off three straight double digit carry performances, two of those going over 100 yards rushing and scoring a TD.

The only difference being the fourth game in 2023 (bowl appearance vs. JMU), was a complete dud for Carson, rushing twice for 14 yards (I assume he got injured in-game).

And maybe 2023 was the year that Carson was on his way to grasping the torch and running (pun intended) with it before injury derailed his final act vs. James Madison; and then subsequently started 2024 off slow due to still recovering. That’s the most convenient narrative for CFF drafters I can craft, at least.

Though it’s true either way that the sudden uptick in usage in both Novembers is hard to explain; just another one of life’s mysteries, I suppose.

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What does it mean for 2025? I honestly don’t know. I would lean towards Carson—barring some mystery injury I haven’t heard about—carrying the momentum into 2025. If that’s the case, his June ADP of 33.2 (according to Campus2Canton) will be well-justified. In fact, it’d be a hell of a deal for a player who could finish as a top 10 runner based on his last four games from 2024.

I personally think his ADP has gotten too high, but in a year where RBs keep getting drafted en-masse within the first three rounds, it’s also somewhat understandable that players like this would start to push up into the early rounds too. I still can’t shake the odd usage over the last two seasons and continue to worry whether we’ll see something similar in ‘25.

I think in a regular year, a player like Carson would be drafted between rounds five and eight/maybe nine. The upside is clearly there, but there is also significant uncertainty about his role and what the plan is with him going forward.

Indeed, we could have made the same optimistic case for Carson this time last year headed into 2024—he finished 2023 strong (although not quite as strong) in a system with a good track record; he looked to be the heir apparent to Emmanuel Michel and Brad Roberts etc. etc.

Then again, who’s going to challenge him in that backfield? Kade Frew? 2024 was his first action and he finished the year with only 45 carries for 260 yards and one score. Owen Allen is still listed on the team website, and he finished last season with 77 carries, 335 yards and two scores. He’ll be in the mix too, but he doesn’t really stand out either.

Then there’s AF’s schedule. They don’t play a single P4 opponent (that’s good), and open the year vs. FCS opponent Bucknell, before taking a BYE in week two. I always dislike these early BYE week teams because it makes it even harder to get that valuable early information on them at the beginning of the season. A player like Carson, for example, will be hard to read because who knows what AF will do vs. a weak opponent in Bucknell, and then we don’t see them again until week three vs. Utah State.

If he is indeed going to be the workhorse, then you’d expect that contest vs. the Aggies to reflect this with huge usage for Carson—but that also means you’re potentially holding him for two weeks before you know what you’ve got in him, which is understandably not ideal, though not exclusive to him (see most MAC players).

I wish his ADP were lower, because this is definitely the type of player I would take chances on later in the draft in a typical year. At a third round ADP, I have a hard time seeing myself acquiring many shares of him. ◾

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1. Sample of 2018-2024.