The Summoning
When the pig is summoned, even the calm mud shall tremble.
- Ancient Chinese Proverb
There are few things more satisfying in college football than a large human being toting the rock behind a thicc offensive line. Add onto the fact that today’s player hails from the great state of Georgia and I’m doubly in. This player—Clemson RB Phil Mafah—is already coming off a strong season as last year’s RB2 behind Will Shipley; however, down the stretch he began to take over the backfield, in part due to Shipley’s health, in part because Mafah was actually better (yes).
In particular, over his last six outings Mafah averaged 20.33(!) carries per game. Most programs’ RB1s don’t even average 20 totes a game. And sure, you can say whatever you want about Dabo and his approach to modern day CFB, but he has demonstrated in the past that he will hand it to his back when he has a stud, and luckily for him (and us), that has been the case more often than not over the last 10 years for the Tigers. We’ll take a deeper look at this in a bit.
Now, Will Shipley moves on, and it’s the fourth year senior’s turn to be summoned as the primary bellcow in the offence. At 6’1, 230 pounds, there shouldn’t be any concerns about his durability this season. Indeed, we’ve already seen Mafah take on massive workloads under Dabo (e.g. 36 carries vs. Notre Dame). I’m sure somewhere Minnesota’s PJ Fleck is scoffing at those numbers.
Nonetheless, I take the staff’s prior trust in Mafah as a good sign for things to come for 2024. With a returning QB who the jury is still out on in Cade Klubnik, and a staff who are each avid pig farmers and premium IHOP membership holders, the formula here suggests that a gargantuan season could be on the horizon for Dabo’s pig. Certainly, East Atlanta Santa himself seems to think so, here’s a headline from a Clemson beat report back in April:
Dabo Swinney expecting Phil Mafah to be a workhorse for Clemson: ‘More snaps than he’s ever played’
And here’s the sub headline:
Phil Mafah got a taste of being the lead back last year. He’s going to need to get used to it, because he’s going to have a lot of touches coming his way.
Here’s the contents of that article:
Dabo Swinney and the Tigers have taken a rather cautious approach with the fourth-year back, keeping an eye on his usage throughout spring practice — he didn't play in the spring game, either.
Why? Because a large workload is coming his way this fall.
"Assume the role of being that guy," Swinney said. "I mean, he's gonna play more snaps than he's ever played, so he's got to be in the best condition that he's ever been in. We've kind of had that one-two punch with he and [Will] Shipley … him and Shipley, it was, who's gonna run out there first? Now it's, Mafah's established as the guy, we've kind of got some competition for that second and third spot. He's got to set the tone, he's got to become the leader. He's got to find his voice a little bit and really assert that this summer. We need that from him."
There's been plenty of negativity around the offense as a whole since the spring game. Who's gonna play quarterback? Which receivers are going to stay healthy and step up? What if I told you, a lot of those concerns could be alleviated if Mafah puts up the type of numbers he's capable of producing this season.
With so much goodness in there I think it’s important to take a recap: we have 1) potentially questionable QB play, 2) some rather pig-tacular quotes from the head coach, 3) a leading runner who is returning and 4) he’ll be running behind a line that returns a majority of snaps from a productive ground game a year ago.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 19.5 — OC: 15.81 (half ppr)
While Dabo and Riley’s RB1s haven’t actually averaged a huge workload over the last five non COVID seasons, they are typically extremely productive, averaging a score per game and nearly 100 yards in Dabo’s case. Ignore the projection numbers.
Names like Travis Etienne and Wayne Gallman come to mind when thinking about Dabo’s track record at the position. Etienne went over 1600 yards back-to-back in 2018 and 2019. Gallman went over 1100 and 1500 yards in 2016 and 2015, respectively. That 2015 season also featured a 1000-yard rushing QB in Deshaun Watson, yet despite that Gallman hit the 300 club in total touches. Beautiful.
As for Riley, he’s not nearly as much of a wanker as his brother, so that’s a good start. His big tailback season came via TCU’s 2022 dream run. Kendre Miller hit 240 total touches, of which he converted into 1500 yards from scrimmage and 17 scores. Undoubtedly it is this season that is pulling Riley’s RB1 average up, as SMU’s 2021 backfield was a committee, and Clemson’s 2023 turned into something similar due to Shipley’s health.
Dabo on the other hand is more consistent in his patterns. There were the aforementioned Etienne years in 2018 and 2019. Shipley rushed for over 1000 yards in 2022, and was on pace to do something similar (as was Mafah) in 2023.
Looking at pass-catching tendencies, Dabos’ RB1s average about two and a half per game, while Riley’s are just under two. That being said, receiving wasn’t a big part of Mafah’s usage profile last year as he caught only 21 passes for 108 yards. This is where players like Shipley or Travis Etienne would be superior.
Clemson also returns most of their snaps along the offensive line from a year ago with 72%. Given that they were an effective running team last year, this is a good thing as far as I’m concerned. The Tigers were also above average in terms of seconds per play (25.1) ranking 42nd in the FBS.
Phil Mafah (6’1, 230)
2023 STATS: 179-965-13 (15.6 ppg)
Nobody would blame you for mistaking Mafah as the Tigers’ RB1 last year. Indeed, he ended up leading Clemson in rushing on the aggregate by season’s end. The rising senior enters his fourth year of collegiate ball in 2024, and this will almost certainly be his last ride before the NFL comes calling.
Originally a four star prospect out of Georgia, Mafah hails from a powerhouse high school in east Atlanta. Grayson, a school that’s been good to just about every other team in the southeast besides the in-state Dawgs, has sent quite a few players to Dabo’s program over the years.
The previously mentioned Wayne Gallman was another Grayson standout who later starred for the Orange in South Carolina. Could Mafah follow in his footsteps in the year of 2024? I don’t see why not, in fact, Mafah could be in for potentially the best statistical season for a RB under Dabo yet. Unlike some of his predecessors, he’s (probably) not going to be playing with a future first round NFL QB, nor do the Tigers have the caliber of WRs that they once had—at least, not in their collegiate prime yet. And before you ask—yes, there will be an article coming on Bryant Wesco and TJ Moore.
Despite declining results on and off the field, one of the things that’s served Dabo’s Clemson well is the in-state spill off of the talented player pool in Georgia that UGA either misses on or doesn’t recruit. Mafah seems like he fits that profile well. It’s not a bad strategy—you could probably put together a top 20 program in CFB just on Georgia prospects that went under the radar and landed somewhere outside of the state.
As far as the competition for touches, there are of course other talented bodies in the room. Jay Haynes and Keith Adams both figure to plug in at various times to fill RB2/3 duties. Here is an interesting snippet from ClemsonInsider.com on the RBs:
Phil Mafah is taking over the reins, something that felt inevitable after last season as he had his true breakout late in the season. Nothing was more proving of that than his four-touchdown and record-setting day in the Gator Bowl.
That’s the bruiser of the backfield, and he still has the speed to be a home-run threat when necessary. He finished last season with career highs with 179 carries for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Behind him is the duo of Jay Haynes and Keith Adams Jr. to spell the backfield. Adams is another physical back and he’s donned the “hammerhead” for a reason. While he’s just 5-foot-9, he’s a stocky 215 pounds that adds extra power to the backfield.
Haynes brings the juice, and his speed is why Dabo Swinney hasn’t stopped raving about him in the offseason. There was a glimpse of that talent when he scored a touchdown in the Charleston Southern game last season.
While he hasn’t been able to show it with an injured spring, Haynes is expected to be a big part of the rotation. Beyond that trio, David Eziomume and Jarvis Green are two raw talents that add even more options.
Closing
Phil Mafah currently holds an ADP of 18.2 according to Campus2Canton. However, his May ADP of 12 suggests that he’s starting to find himself in the first round. I like Mafah and I don’t have any problem with selecting him in the back half of the first in a standard or bestball re-draft format.
If the quotes above are any indication, we could be looking at the FBS’ touch leader when it is all said and done in 2024. The other ingredients (potentially lacklustre QB play, veteran OL, lack of other offensive weapons on offence, and a pissed off Dabo after being dunked on by the media) can’t hurt either.
So, say it with me now: Phil Mafah— YOU HAVE OFFICIALLY BEEN SUMMONED. ◾
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Sample: 2018-2023.