Among the various metrics one could leverage to explain the SEC’s dominance over CFB in the late 2010s/early 2020s, the Biletnikoff winners list is probably not one that immediately springs to mind for college football fans.
Except, it probably should. Between 2018 and 2022, a player from an SEC school won it four out of five times, and from three different schools. In fact, one of those winners hailed from the very same school as the player we will be discussing today (more on this later). This variable is also a good one to explain the shift in offensive philosophy that overtook the conference during this timespan.
Programs like Alabama and LSU, which were primarily run-heavy and play action teams in the earlier part of the decade, each adopted versions of air raid systems and began recruiting (and signing) five star QBs to go along with the uber athletes they were already getting at WR.
The results speak for themselves—LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase won the award off of the arm of Joe Burrow in 2019. Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy secured it the year before with Tua Tugavailoa throwing him passes. Devonta Smith won it (along with the Heisman) with Mac Jones as his QB in 2020. Then there was Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt in 2022.
The most remarkable thing in all of this might be the fact that your favourite CFF writer rostered two out of those four SEC Biletnikoff award winners in CFF leagues. I picked up Chase off of waivers shortly after the Vandy game in 2019 (on a team that already rostered Justin Jefferson and Terrace Marshall). Ditto for Hyatt, who I picked up off of waivers in a league hosted by the great John Laub in 2022. Suffice to say, the SEC has been good to me.
I’ve maintained ever since that whenever there’s a run on this award from one league’s players, it is generally a good sign for the CFF receiving production of that conference. Case in point: outside of Marvin Harrison, a player from the B1G hadn’t won it since 2004.
Comparatively, a player from the BIG12 (the conference I believe to be the best for CFF), has won the award eight times(!) since 2007. That’s eight out of eighteen total winners by the way (or nearly half of the field).
Now, let us discuss the topic at hand. LSU’s Aaron Anderson is a local product from New Orleans. He was following the Devonta Smith career plan by signing with Nick Saban’s Alabama out of high school, but things went awry in his freshman season.
He subsequently transferred back home to the local program the following offseason, but still didn’t play much in his first year back. However, in 2024 there was an inflection point in his career path. He finished the year first in receiving (by yardage) for the Tigers with 875 yards. His five scores were behind only Kyren Lacy who had nine.
Most importantly, he appeared to lock down a role for himself in the starting rotation, primarily operating out of the slot. He became LSU’s most reliable receiver in the latter stages of the season. Lacy had a volatile demeanour, and Chris Hilton Jr. couldn’t find the same page with head coach Brian Kelly.
Lacy moves on, along with star TE Mason Taylor, who was actually third on the team in receiving yardage and catches (in fact, he finished with only three less receptions than Kyren Lacy). Transfer WR CJ Daniels was fourth on the team in receiving with 42 receptions and 480 yards; he moves on too.
Chris ‘Jumpman’ Hilton returns, and so does former Mississippi State transfer Zavion Thomas. These two actually finished as WR7 and WR8 in 2024, behind two RBs. That’s in part because Hilton was injured throughout most of the year.
LSU’s plan to replace the lost production included the acquisition of two transfers: OU’s Nic Anderson, and Kentucky’s Barion Brown. Anderson did not play in 2024, and is a question mark for 2025. Barion Brown has elite speed, and is a very good return specialist. He has yet to develop into a wide receiver, and is more of an athlete playing football than a football player at present moment.
While Hilton has struggled with injuries throughout his career, even more troubling is the fact that he also struggled with drops in 2024. And Thomas, the transfer, did not do much of anything with LSU last season.
All of these facts concurrently lead me to wonder one thing: this offence, which returns a potential #1 overall draft pick in 2026 via QB Garrett Nussmeier, may be ripe for the taking for our friend Aaron Anderson, whose initials also happen to be the initials of ‘All American’… coincidence? I think not.
The last LSU WR to win the Biletnikoff Award did so after catching 23 passes for 313 yards the season prior. Anderson’s got a leg up there headed into 2025, but there are some similarities.
When Chase won the award, there was sort of an early 2020s Georgia/Alabama phenomenon going on in that if he didn’t win it, Justin Jefferson almost certainly would have. Terrace Marshall was also having a big year. So, it wasn’t like LSU was a barren room; there were a lot of studs at WR who could do different things.
Other similarities include the fact that both had/have returning veteran QBs who could/can sling it. Year four also figures to be a critical juncture for Brian Kelly and his program, similar to Ed O’s 2019 team, with many prognosticating the Tigers as a future CFP team.
Nuss isn’t Joe Burrow and Anderson almost certainly isn’t Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase, but I feel that in 2025, LSU’s passing offence will be very strong, and that Anderson has a very good chance to be the lead target. By extension, that could mean that Anderson, who already checks in with significant production from 2024, would be in for a huge season.
Brian Kelly’s had something of a renaissance at LSU—and no, I’m not just talking about the accent. In his last five years at ND, Kelly had one WR breach 1000 yards (Chase Claypool in 2019).
In his first three seasons with LSU, two out of the three featured at least one 1000-yard receiver, and in total the Tigers have produced three 1000 yarders (Nabers, 2022-23, Thomas, 2023) in three seasons.
Table 1.
The OC, Joe Sloan, was LSU’s QB coach in 2022 and 2023. He was promoted in 2024 when Mike Denbrock accepted the same role with ND. While the LSU offence under Sloan wasn’t as productive as the previous two seasons, they also didn’t have the same personnel in ‘24. Notably, QB Jayden Daniels moved on.
It should be noted that in Daniels’ first year as the starter, Nabers just barely passed 1000 yards, and was a good but not great CFF asset. Nussmeier’s first season last year was a success, but he may also elevate his play in year two as Daniels did. Ditto for Anderson following his own Malik Nabers development curve.
The LSU Tigers move fast under Kelly and Sloan. They’ve averaged around 25 seconds per play over the three year span of Kelly’s tenure as head coach, and 24 seconds per play in 2024 when Sloan took over as OC.
Additionally, while Kelly’s play calling tendency is an almost 50-50 balance over his last five years, his LSU tenure has seen splits of 59%, 49%, and 48% pass. The 59% pass split happened in 2024 with Nussmeier at QB, and I’d expect this split to hold steady in 2025.
Again, the main takeaway I have here is that there are going to be a lot of passes, and there is a lot of opportunity right now for one or two LSU WRs to dominate the depth chart as we work through the offseason. Anderson is best positioned in my opinion to be a fixture in the offence.
Anderson looked like he was going to be a star coming out of high school. He was a top-50 recruit from Louisiana, and he committed to Alabama as a WR. While his storyline followed one former Tide receiver, Devonta Smith, his player comparison in the industry was actually another Tide star, Jaylen Waddle.
His evaluation coming out of high school by 247 Sports is provided below:
A dynamic slot receiver with legit foot speed that’s a big play waiting to happen. Cut his teeth at the New Orleans heavyweight that is Edna Karr finishing his prep career off with over 6,000 yards of total offense to his credit and 20 return touchdowns. Made a splash as a senior when he housed three kickoffs against rival John Curtis in a game that was televised by ESPN2.
Under 5-foot-10, but at times plays bigger than his size would suggest. Muscular build allows him to power his way through most would-be tacklers in the open field, at least on Friday nights.
Quick feet might be the best aspect of his game at this stage as he can shake and lose defensive backs with sharp cuts.
Will need to keep progressing as a route runner, but already seems to have mastered how to sell a double-move. Should provide immediate special teams value for a College Football Contender given how elusive he is with the ball in his hands.
Seems destined to eventually emerge as an impact inside receiver on Saturdays. Ability to create in space on jet sweeps/quick screens could help him avoid a redshirt. Track times (10.77 in the 100-meter dash) will have him on the radar of NFL scouts one day.
After watching Anderson in college, I see what 247’s analyst meant when he said Anderson “plays bigger than his size would suggest”. He is a small player, but he doesn’t look small when he’s playing.
Chase was the same way at LSU. He’s listed at 6’1 but oftentimes played like he was 6’3/6’4 with his vertical ability. Anderson is smaller, and is more of a slot receiver than Chase, but they both have compact builds and are strong with the ball in their hands.
At the beginning of this video there is a snippet from Brian Kelly speaking about Anderson’s development before the season started:
I would expect that Anderson takes another step forward in 2025. Whether that’s good enough to make him the ‘go-to’ guy for LSU remains to be seen.
The big strike against Anderson is that he’ll be operating from the slot instead of the boundary, which was typically Kelly’s WR1 role at ND. At LSU, it’s been more of a mixed bag where the production comes from. Regardless of where he lines up, I just like where he stands in the WR pecking order at present moment.
Furthermore, if the Tigers are going to bounce back this upcoming season (and I think that they will), it’ll likely be because Nussmeier is playing at a high level and he already showed good chemistry with Anderson last year. ◾
If you enjoyed this content and would like to read more, I recommend joining the Pigpen, a community of thousands of degenerate college football fans:
