This True Freshman is Already Gaining a Reputation (and He Might Start Week 1)
UCF freshman Bredell Richardson's legend continues to grow this offseason.
You getting skinny, I'm getting chunky.
- Kodak Black, musician
Last season we bore witness to two incredible true freshman breakouts at the WR position. NC State’s Kevin Concepcion, a three star out of North Carolina, ascended into the WR1 role in Robert Anae’s offence, often demonstrating immense versatility as he received almost as many carries as he did receptions. Around the same time, Florida’s Eugene Wilson, a four star out of Tampa Bay, began torching the stat sheet behind Ricky Pearsall.
Every year there are at least a few true freshman breakouts at each position, however, prognosticating who these players will be tends to be very difficult. There are a lot of factors that determine a year one breakout, perhaps none more impactful than opportunity. A vital determinant in whether a freshman produces in his first year is whether he’ll be a starter, or not.
In fact, if you were to look at year one breakouts over the last handful of years, it would be a true statement to say that players are much more likely to do it playing in a mid-tier/lower-tier program, rather than the Ohio State and Georgia’s of the world. Indeed, the two most prominent examples from last year played at NC State, a mid-tier program, and Florida, a low-tier program.
In all seriousness, the trend of year one breakouts coming via programs who are not stacked to the brim with five stars is fairly prominent, and while everyone gravitates to the elite incoming five-star freshman, it’s usually the three and four stars who achieve the year one breakout feat.
UCF true freshman Bredell Richardson is beginning to check a lot of the boxes that are typically present for year one breakouts. For starters, he plays at a mid-major program in UCF, where there’s an opportunity to get on the field early. Second, the former three/four star player out of Tampa has already been turning heads amongst coaches, players and beat writers alike.
Here’s an excerpt from a UCF beat writer from practices in late March:
Kobe Hudson returns on the opposite side and Xavier Townsend returns to play in the slot. Incoming freshman wide receiver Bredell Richardson has been talked as a name to watch and it would not shock if Malzahn trusted him early on as he raved about the Tampa native during UCF’s Signing Day press conference
A national beat writer included Richardson in his list of BIG-12 breakout players for 2024:
UCF freshman wide receiver Bredell Richardson turned heads on Day 1 of spring camp this week. There is already buzz around Orlando that the rising star could move into an immediate starting role if he continues to trend upward.
And of course, as is usually the case with situations like this, some of Richardson’s teammates also chimed in. Here’s fellow WR Kobe Hudson on the incoming freshman:
[Bredell] Will be one to watch this season.
That’s a lot of buzz for one player—I’m thinking he’s worth looking into further…
WR Bredell Richardson — 6’0, 190
As can be seen from the above photo, Richardson comes in as a consensus three star recruit on ON3’s rating service. Rivals were the highest on him, rating him as a top-150 prospect, which is certainly eyebrow-raising.
Even more alarming is his offer sheet (especially for a player of his recruiting rating). Texas, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Florida State, PSU, Michigan, and others, all offered the Carrollwood Day playmaker.
As a word to the wise, whenever you see an offer sheet like that, you can basically throw out the low recruiting ranking. Richardson was clearly a highly sought after prospect across multiple different staffs, holding offers from the who’s who of College Football. In fact, it probably would have been a more fruitful exercise to run down the list of big-name programs that didn’t offer Richardson: Clemson, Ohio State, USC (I think they still count, right?)… that’s basically it.
The school Richardson comes from, Carrollwood Day, is a big time program in Florida high school football too. We’re not talking IMG-level, or one of the big Miami schools, but this is a school that has produced a lot of Div. I CFB players in the last handful of years. In fact, Tampa Bay/central Florida is a seriously underrated football hotbed right now.
Unfortunately, Richardson was so far off the radar during the majority of his high school recruitment, that 247 Sports didn’t even fill out a qualitative evaluation of him. They did list his high school stats, however, which I’ve pasted here for your convenience:
Set career-highs as a senior (2023), catching 68 passes for 1,248 yards and 12 TD. Helped Carrollwood Day make regional finals of Florida’s 1M playoffs.
2022: In 9 games, caught 21 passes for 405 yards and 3 TD.
Judging from the stats, it seems like he wasn’t really involved in the offence in his 11th grade year, but transformed into a stud in the offseason, leading to an offensive explosion in his senior year. That would also explain the list of offers he has relative to his star rating.
For some context, NC State’s true freshman star Kevin Concepcion caught 29 passes for 519 yards and four touchdowns in his senior year. He also carried the ball 17 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with 1032 all-purpose yards.
Ironically, Concepcion’s ON3 recruiting profile is remarkably similar to Richardson’s, with Rivals being the only service rating him as a four star.
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG — HC: 13.3 — OC: 16.15 (2018-2023 sample)1
Beyond assessing the opportunity to get on the field, an always-important consideration in determining a breakout is the system that the player plays in. Gus Malzahn returns for his fourth season with UCF, after spending eight at Auburn. UCF actually employs three—yes three—OCs, with two being listed as ‘co-OC’.
Tim Harris is listed as the OC, while Herb Hand and Darin Hinshaw are listed as co-OCs. The PPG average quoted above for the OC is from Harris’ background.
HC — Gus Malzahn
OC — Tim Harris
Co-OC — Darin Hinshaw
Co-OC — Herb Hand
Harris rejoined UCF in January 2024, after spending one season at Miami. Previously, he joined Malzahn in his move to UCF in the 2021 season, serving as the co-OC and RBs coach for two seasons. Before UCF, he was the co-OC and RBs coach at FIU from 2015-20. The rest of his experience is pictured below:
Hinshaw is entering his second year with the Knights and was the co-OC last year. He previously served with Bryant Vincent at UAB (2022) as co-OC, and was co-OC of the Kentucky Wildcats from 2016-20.
Herb Hand has been the offensive line coach since 2021, and was promoted to a co-OC role at the end of last year. He previously served as the co-OC at Texas on Tom Herman’s staff from 2018-2020. He also spent time as the offensive line coach and run-game coordinator at Auburn, PSU, and Vanderbilt during the 2010s.
While Harris has basically been attached to the hip with Malzahn over the last five seasons, one notable year where he was on his own was in 2021 with FIU, where he had Tyrese Chambers, who went over 1000 yards receiving. This season is likely a contributing factor to why his WR1 PPG average is higher than Malzahn’s. Gus’ last few seasons at Auburn are also probably weighing his average down.
As far as Malzahn’s time at UCF, while it’s true that only one season so far has produced a 1000-yard receiver (Javon Baker in 2023), I would argue that each season there’s been a solid CFF asset in that WR room. I suppose the good news from this angle is that UCF typically spreads the targets to two or three receivers primarily, meaning if Richardson is on the field, he’ll likely finish with at least a few hundred yards receiving in year one.
For some additional context to the above statement, Malzahn’s WR2 PPG average is around 10, and his WR3 average is around 8. Harris’ WR2/3 numbers are almost identical. Again, this is using a recent sample size of 2018-2023.
The above mentioned Kobe Hudson returns off a 900-yard receiving season, and figures to be the WR1 in this offence. Townsend (325 yard receiving) is assumed to be the next guy—but I’m not so sure, at least, as things currently stand.
Closing
One of the concerns I have for the WR room as a whole headed into 2024 is the play from the QB position. We all know KJ Jefferson is a great CFF asset due to his dual threat skillset, but his passing prowess—or lack there of—may limit the ceiling of each of the UCF starting wideouts.
Nonetheless, I’m excited to see what’s in store for Richardson. It’s unlikely that he will usurp Hudson as the primary wide receiver in 2024, but he’s a potentially strong producer in 2025 and beyond, making him an exciting dynasty/Devy/C2C asset to acquire.
One final word of caution from someone who’s been doing this for a little while now: these offseason heroes don’t always translate to the field (see former Wazzou slot receiver DT Sheffield in 2023). So I don’t recommend taking the quotes above from the beat writers and Richardson’s teammates as gospel, but rather: as just another data point in your assessment and valuation of the player.
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These PPG numbers are derived from one of the subscribers’ models: Joe Arpesi. The numbers are half PPR.