Tua 2.0? Cal's Freshman Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele Intends to Start Immediately
(and he probably will)
Mom, it's vacation! It's a breakfast buffet in Hawaii! It shouldn't be a stressful situation!
- Quinn, White Lotus S1
Maybe the comparison is just too obvious (or maybe too lazy), but one can’t help it if the first five star lefty QB from Hawaii doesn’t remind them of one Tua Tagovailoa, from the C/O 2017. And before any dweeb tries to fact check me on this one, ON3 has Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele rated an industry five star, so suck on that, nerd.
Speaking of nerds, it’s not often that those athletically challenged Berkeley bunch receive the commitment of a five star football player. The general public knows Cal as ‘that other Bay Area school where smart people go’, but not necessarily a factory of high level football.
Even stranger is that the Bears have acquired the services of a former SEC head coach, Bryan Harsin, best known from his time as Boise State’s head coach, to take over OC duties in Jake Spavital’s absence. And just when you thought things couldn’t get any weirder, I’ll remind the reader that Cal—along with those scumbags at Stanford—are in the Atlantic Coast Conference, and have been for about a year now. For fuck’s sake.
I don’t know about you, but the cacophony of these facts was enough to make this writer have to lie down and re-evaluate everything I thought I knew about college ball. Strange times indeed.
But amidst the onslaught of constant change within this great sport, a few principles will probably stand the test of time. One such principle is that high level high school players want to get on the field early. It’s one of the great equalizing forces in football recruiting.
Even in the height of Nick Saban’s Alabama dynasty, he and his staff (which included Kirby Smart) couldn’t get ‘em all out of high school. Why? Well, because five stars want to play, usually as early as possible. In that sense, having lots of talent hinders your ability to get more. It’s a great balancing mechanism to at least somewhat limit a handful of programs running away with all the players.
A similar narrative seems to be at work here regarding Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele’s recruitment. Originally a Cal pledge, he backed off his commitment and reopened his recruitment this past fall. He eyed visits to Oregon, and the likes of UGA, but never made it out to the East Coast.
It appeared that he was locked in on Oregon, perhaps eyeing a potential path to the field in 2025 with Dillon Gabriel moving on. Of course, big programs have stacked depth charts, and Oregon is no exception. Evidently, Dante Moore is still on the roster, and his presence probably loomed large in practice. Furthermore, and perhaps more pertinently, Cal starter Fernando Mendoza announced a transfer to Indiana later in December, clearing the path at Cal.
Are you following the dominoes here? Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele lasted all but a week in Eugene before announcing a move shortly after signing à la Julian Sayin to Cal. His intentions are clear, and he probably has one of the easiest paths to the field of any freshman QB in 2025. Even the likes of Bryce Underwood probably won’t start to open the year at Michigan, but Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele very well could at Cal.
Which now begs the question: should CFF players be making note of this move? Well, let’s take a closer look.
Coaching & System
QB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 18.6 — OC: 18.81
Justin Wilcox is a Cal staple at this point—or at least, he’s been there long enough to achieve his PhD—having occupied the head coaching role since 2017. His background is on defence, though, so he’s probably not the guy calling the plays on offence.
Enter the aforementioned Bryan Harsin, who now retains the role of OC for the Bears. Harsin was fired from Auburn in 2022, and had since been on a coaching hiatus. He wasn’t exactly known for being a miracle worker at the QB position with the Tigers; ditto for his time with the Broncos. His best QB1 average since 2018 occurred during that very season, with Brett Rypien accounting for 3700 yards and a 30 to 7 TD/INT ratio.
The best QB1 season at Cal under Wilcox occurred in 2021, when dual threat Chase Garbers accounted for 20 total TDs to 8 INTs. His average was bolstered by his rushing usage.
All that to say, neither of these coaches have seen an overwhelmingly strong QB season under their watch lately. Fernando Mendoza was good at times in 2024, but he himself only scored over 20 points thrice in four point passing TD formats.
However, of all the CFF relevant positions, I’ve always felt that QB is the one that is the least system-dependent. If there’s an elite one on the roster, that player can usually work magic regardless of the system. This is in part because the QB starts the play with the ball in his hands, and will often be given the freedom to change plays on a whim if they hold the coach’s trust.
When looking at play calling tendencies, the answer is more clear as to why there hasn’t been the CFF success at the QB position under both coaches. Wilcox averages a near even split, while Harsin’s average is closer to 55/45 in favour of the run. The seconds per play data under both suggests the offences typically move at an average FBS pace.
It remains to be seen what the supporting cast around the QB position will look like in 2025, but one piece of good news is that RB Jaydn Ott (and yes, the first name really is spelled that way) is returning. He will presumably take on a bellcow role for the offence.
Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele (6’2.5, 215)
Sagapolutele was not just a notable football talent in high school, but also played Basketball and participated in Track & Field. He was rated as a four star prospect on 247 Sports, and a composite five star on ON3’s industry ranking.
247’s Greg Biggins provided this evaluation in the 2024 offseason:
Keawe Sagapolutele has clearly established himself as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks this off-season. He has really had a great spring and summer including a recent top 11 finish at the prestigious Elite 11 Finals.
You can make an argument he has the strongest arm in the country but doesn’t just throw all fastballs and has really improved in his ability to change speeds and throw with touch. His deep ball accuracy is among the best in the country as well and he can really layer the football in to tight windows. His release is smooth and tight and he has improved in his ability to make quick decisions and get the ball out on time.
The next big jump we want to see this fall is improving his mobility, avoiding sacks and being more of a threat running the ball when the pocket breaks down. All the physical tools are there and Keawe Sagapolutele has a very high ceiling and NFL potential if he continues to develop at his current rate.
Those who are regular readers will have heard me say that late risers in the recruiting rankings database are always the ones I pay particular attention to. You always want to weigh evaluators’ assessments more with the more information they get. Biggins provided a pretty rosy review of Sagapolutele’s upside and current abilities.
However, it should be noted that five star QBs transfer at an alarming rate. The bust rate from what I can tell (anecdotally) is also very high. The setup at Cal that Sagapolutele enters is good in the sense that the path to the field early is there, but the staff he’s playing for makes it feel not likely that he will be a notable CFF asset in the near future. From that sense, Oregon would have likely been a better fit in the long term.
That being said, coaching movement is almost as common as player movement in CFB, so there could be very different staffs at both Cal and Oregon before Sagapolutele’s collegiate career comes to a close.
My assessment as things currently stand is that Sagapolutele will probably play significant snaps in 2025 for the Cal Bears, whether he starts the year or not, but is unlikely to be a rosterable CFF asset during this time. In the 2025 offseason, he will likely transfer again, or the Bears will find a new OC to keep him happy, at which point we can re-evaluate the expectation of his CFF outlook. ◾
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Sample from 2018-2024
Not to be confused with his brother John at Hawaii… Three-star prospect that took snaps in 5 games as a freshman in 2024 with basically no stats accumulated…