WVU Has a Breakout Star (or Two) Coming at WR
WVU Has a Breakout Star (or Two) Coming at WR
I'm from West Virginia. If you didn't know what was happening in NASCAR, you were on the outside.
- Randy Moss, former NFL athlete
Pigs, welcome back. It feels good to be writing about the West Virginia Mountaineers again. I’ve been wanting to for a while, but needed a reason too, and I think the two young lads today fit the description.
Towards the end of the 2023 summer, I had the opportunity to feature both of WVU’s QB— Garrett Greene, and the converted TE to RB— CJ Donaldson.
Fortunately, Greene did his part in making me look good—which I’m sure was his primary concern—as he finished with a stellar season. As did the WVU Mountaineers as a whole, who finished 9-4 after many picked them in the preseason to finish last in the BIG-12.
Now, we head into 2024 with a completely different outlook for WVU. Garrett Greene is everybody’s favourite player now. As is Jaheim White, who is currently a popular pick in College Fantasy Football (CFF) drafts.
Indeed, I have Greene very high in my Q1 rankings report too. A big part of why that is is his rushing ability. He finished 2023 throwing 16 TDs, while rushing in another 13. That’s great for the QB individually, but does tend to negatively impact the WR production, right? We’ll take a look at this later.
You might also be thinking: West Virginia… WR… when was the last time they had a productive CFF asset at WR? Fair enough if that’s you—you’re skepticism is warranted. Although some of us may remember the first half of the 2022 season when Bryce Ford-Wheaton was off to a pretty strong start on the year.
Kaden Prather and Sam James were also CFF relevant during that season. Granted they had a very different style of QB at the time, JT ‘Head Chef’ Daniels, who was always liable to chuck it around the yard. Unfortunately, the recipients of Daniels’ passes were just as likely to be members of the opposing team than his own, but that’s neither here nor there.
While sifting through spring beat reports the other day, I came across two names that kept coming up from the WVU camp: sophomore WR Traylon Ray, and fourth year redshirt junior Jaden Bray (by way of Oklahoma State). Now, I know that both names sound confusingly similar but just stick with me here.
Here’s a tidbit from a March report on Traylon Ray:
West Virginia expects to rely heavily on its strong rushing attack in 2024, but the emergence of wide receiver Traylon Ray could lead to more balance offensively. The lengthy 6-foot-3, 193-pound sophomore caught 15 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns in the final eight games of the 2023 season. The Mountaineers do return nine of their top 10 pass-catchers from last year, but Ray appears to be a likely rising star primed to contribute as a potential leading receiver in 2024.
From practice observations, the rotation of the first team offence was:
Pass-catchers No. 1: Preston Fox outside on the left, Traylon Ray outside on the right, Jarel Williams in the slot and Will Dixon at tight end
Not recognizing those names? That’s okay, because the rotation is likely to change between now and the start of the season anyways. Certainly, I think the next player is going to be a starter. Here’s the same beat writer on Jaden Bray:
I watched [Jaden] Bray for two reasons. First, he's new. Second, he gets your attention. He took reps inside and outside, and he's just a mature player. Mature frame. Mature route runner. He was inside for one rep and outside for the next, and he aced the routes
WVU head coach Neal Brown also mentioned Jaden Bray when speaking about the incoming transfers:
They came to play. That's why they transferred. They put pressure on themselves, but everything is new -- where to go, what to do, new reps and schemes. They're all anxious, but there's usually a big jump between Practice One and Practice Two. Bray had that.
He's a really good blocker, too . . . He's got some strength to him. He looks like a long, lean guy, but he's got some raw power.
He's had success at Oklahoma State, and he knows he's capable and talented enough to have a lot more success . . . He came in and worked extremely hard. He's a natural ball-catcher but also just a really good football player.
And again, from a beat report on Bray:
It's one thing to hear his quarterback, Garrett Greene, say he's been impressed and predict Bray will make the offense better. Defensive players are slow to praise offensive players, and vice versa, unless they can't help themselves.
"He caught a screen and I was on the other side of the field, and he cut it my way and I could see the change when he was running, like, 'OK, he's got some wheels,'" Burks said. "I've seen a couple 1-on-1s through film watching. I see how he gets out or routes and out of his cuts, and I really like that."
Coaching & System
WR1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 10.9 — OC: 8.661
The head coach, Neal Brown, has been with the program since 2019. His teams typically skew more towards the run, with a historical average of a ~52/48 run pass split.
The OC, Chad Scott, joined WVU with Brown in 2019 as the co-OC and RBs coach. He was promoted to OC and RBs coach in 2023. Prior to WVU he was the RBs coach at Louisville (2019), TEs coach at UNC (2016-18), and the RBs coach at Kentucky (2013-15), Texas Tech (2010-12) and Troy (2007-09). Given that the entirety of his play calling seasons came under Brown, the data on his tendencies are essentially the same as Brown’s (e.g., 52/48 run pass split).
As a program WVU moved very slowly last year, ranking 112th in seconds per play run, with an average of 28.6 seconds. This aligns historically with how Brown has run the WVU program. The seasons prior, the Mountaineers moved at 29, 28, 29, 27, and 25 seconds per play, respectively.
Below in Table 1. is a summary of the relevant stats for today’s discussion over the last five years of each coach’s background. Note that Brown’s historical WR1 target share averages just over 20%, which is solid. There were two (perhaps outlier) years in the aforementioned 2022 season and the 2019 season where the WR1 averaged over 25% target share (that’s a little more like it). In each case that target share accounted for over nine targets per game for that player.
Chad Scott was privy to one of those 25% target share years, but he was also the OC of the worst season yet under Brown in 2023 (as far as we’re concerned), where the WR1 averaged a shocking 9.67% target share. Christ all mighty.
So, as we can see the coaches’ track records with respect to the WR position are pretty enigmatic. It’s hard to pinpoint down exactly what to expect in 2024, but I say it’s worth a shot anyways via the two above mentioned names (especially Bray).
Double Trouble: Traylon Ray & Jaden Bray
Jaden Bray (6’2, 200) — 2023 STATS: 30-382-2 — 8 PPG
Since Bray was the topic of discussion from most of those quotes above, we’ll start with him. Bray’s an interesting character. The son of two army veterans, he majors in computer engineering, which you don’t see very often amongst college football players.
He finished the 2023 season with 382 receiving yards on 30 receptions, ranking fourth on the team, collecting two touchdowns and averaging 12.7 yards per catch (~8 PPG in 1PPR formats). His season-high of 77 receiving yards came against Kansas State. Perhaps non-coincidentally, however, he actually had his best game of the year vs. WVU, catching four of his five targets for 53 yards and a score (just under 15 points).
His career high thus far actually came in his freshman season, when he caught four of his five targets for 84 yards and a score (~18.5 points) vs. Kansas. In fact, he tied the team record for most games played by a freshman that season.
While he didn’t quite live up to the trajectory from his freshman season at Oklahoma State, he has a fresh start now to fully realize his potential. The 6’2, 200 pound Oklahoma native was rated a three star recruit coming out of high school, with other offers from Arkansas, Baylor and Kansas State.
Traylon Ray (6’3, 193) — 2023 STATS: 18-321-3 — 6 PPG
Ray’s true freshman season was a success by all accounts. In his first extended action (Oct. 12 vs. Houston), he caught three of his four passes for 43 yards and a score (15.3 points). He then unfortunately went quiet for a few weeks, before coming back with a vengeance to end the year. In his final two appearances in 2023, Ray scored 11.8 and 18.1 points vs. Baylor and UNC, respectively. He was targeted six times in each of those games, suggesting that he began to carve out a role for himself.
To me, Ray is even more exciting than Bray, despite most of the commentary from the coaches above being directed at Bray, due to Ray’s age. Ray popped off as a true freshman down the stretch. I don’t know if he’ll really be a guy this year, but he should at least be in the mix, and then could easily be a focal point of the offence in 2025. From that lens, Bray might be more the guy worth taking a shot on in 2024, whereas Ray is more of the Devy/Dynasty/C2C asset.
As far as Ray’s background, he was a three star recruit out of Tallahassee, FL, which seems to be a place where WVU is—for some reason—establishing a pipeline, as Garrett Greene is also from Tallahassee.
Fun fact, Ray’s uncle, Melvin Ray, played for Auburn in the early 2010s and caught a 50-yard TD pass in the 2013 BCS championship game vs. Florida State, who resides in… yep, Tallahassee, FL. Sometimes these things just all come together full circle, you feel me?
Closing
Would you believe me if I told you that both of Ray and Bray were going undrafted right now in CFF drafts?
Well, yeah, you probably would actually. I think Bray is at least worth a shot as a late round dart throw. I will draft Ray in longer horizon formats if given the chance (also at a late round, of course).
The primary concerns here are the track record of the system, and the potential of the QB to be playing a lot of hero-ball this fall, meaning the TD opportunities could be limited for the WRs. We’re also talking about two players who have yet to be very productive in their careers thus far.
Furthermore, the Mountaineers have two strong tailbacks who will each need to be fed appropriately as well. But I—ever the optimist—am holding out hope that maybe, just maybe, this is one of the 25% target share years; you never know. ◾
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These numbers are quoted in half PPR measurement.