You Should be Going Number Two (Regularly)
A candid discussion on Georgia State, Michigan, South Alabama, Texas, Oregon, and Ohio State's backfields.
Ah, Number Two. Your timing is impeccable.
- Dr. Evil, Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery (1997)
Picture this: it’s a regular day at the office of the plush Campus2Canton head quarters. In the VIP CFF lounge, CFF Nate, CFF Jared, and I are discussing prospects for the upcoming 2024 season.
Nate tells us about Rice’s latest pig, Dean Conners. Jared advocates for UAB’s RB Lee Beebe and Tulane’s WR Mario Williams. Amidst the discussion, I pour myself a glass from the fruit punch bowl, and help myself to one of the complementary sandwiches provided daily in the lounge.
There’s a small fireplace in the corner, and the walls are stacked with CFF Theory & Application textbooks. One of my most cited works—Volumen Porcus: Fundamentals of SOAP Theory (fourth edition)—which some in the field consider the holy grail of RB theory in CFF—is front and centre.
Amidst my day dreaming I hear my name called “VP, what say you about that backfield situation?”
Coming back to where my feet are, I slowly place my glass of punch down on the table, and finish my last bite of the cheese and pickle sandwich I was enjoying. I look at both Nate and Jared and reply:
“I’m going number two”
I wait a few moments to observe their confusion for my own amusement, and then I expand on my answer.
“As someone who graduated with a Doctorate in Pig-osophy (in less than one year), I don’t think the RB there is being priced appropriately right now, I’d rather just take a shot with the second guy at a discounted price.”
Both nod in agreement. However, the moment is fleeting, as Nate tells us that he has a lecture on ‘Kingmakers’ to deliver in five minutes across campus, and Jared has more ADP research to get through. I then decide to retire to my office, and begin my latest work, titled “going number two” in CFF.
GEORGIA STATE
RB1: Freddie Brock — ADP: 161 | RB2: CJ Beasley — ADP: none1
The Georgia State football program underwent a major facelift this offseason, losing its HC, OC, QB, WR1, and top runner from a year ago. While that amount of turnover introduces a lot of uncertainty, it also presents opportunities to buy assets at a lower value due to the perceived increased risks associated with them.
Dell McGee took over as the head coach after spending the last eight seasons with Kirby at UGA. He doesn’t have any history as a play caller. His OC, Jim Cheney, is known from his time at UGA, where his offences produced two seasons with two(!) 1000-yard rushers, and another with—only—one. All that to say, this could be a team that is running the football a lot this upcoming season, especially with the uncertainty at QB (does anybody even know who’s playing QB for the Panthers in 2024?).
Most drafters this offseason are assuming that Freddie Brock is going to be the lead back here, but this is more based on assumption, rather than evidence. Brock finished 2024 on a high note in the absence of Marcus Carroll during the Panthers’ bowl game vs. Utah State (rushing for 276 yards and a score). That’s definitely promising, but CJ Beasley is no slouch either.
Beasley joins GSU by way of Coastal Carolina, where he spent the previous four seasons. His career-high in rushing came in 2022, where he finished with 141 carries for 717 yards and five scores.
Brock on the other hand joined GSU last offseason from the FCS school Maine. His career high there was in 2021, when he ran 135 times for 706 yards and seven scores.
I don’t see the reason to discriminate between the two when it comes to ADP, especially given that the OC has a track record of huge rushing usage, leading to multiple 1000-yard runners in the same season, multiple times (UGA 2017-18, Arkansas 2014).
MICHIGAN
RB1: Donovan Edwards — ADP: 32 | RB2: Kalel Mullings — ADP: none
I’ve been vocal already this offseason about my concerns regarding Donovan Edwards’ 2024 profile. He has regressed as a player virtually every season he’s been in college football, and now he’s being selected in the third rounds of CFF drafts… huh?
His teammate, Kalel Mullings, has been in the program for awhile now, joining the Wolverines in the 2020 class. He hasn't played much, but did get some playing time in 2023. In particular, he was the second guy in the rotation on occasion ahead of Edwards last season (credit to my C2C colleague Chris Kay for that observation).
At 6’2, 240, it’s entirely plausible that he gets more of the redzone touches and turns into something resembling a TD merchant for the Wolverines in 2024. Either way, when we’re talking about Bestball drafts, Mullings is the guy I’d rather have at a discount than take on the risk associated with a third round pick in Edwards.
SOUTH ALABAMA
RB1: Kentrell Bullock — ADP: 108 | RB2: Brayson McReynolds — ADP: 206
I wrote about this very thing in my Q1 Rankings Report; on the surface, it would appear that Bullock is a no brainer for the CFF-inclined individual.
On closer inspection, it’s not obvious that Bullock is the guy who’s going to replace La’Damian Webb, as his carry volume was not significantly higher than McReynolds. In fact, the latest spring camp report suggested that McReynolds is in the lead to be the next guy, not Bullock.
If you’re drafting in a Bestball format, or even just a deeper standard league, I’d recommend waiting and picking McReynolds later, rather than chance it with Bullock right now.
TEXAS
RB1: Cedric Baxter — ADP: 23 | RB2: Jaydon Blue — ADP: 212
Everybody’s all in on Baxter, right? Well, I’m here to tell you to slow your roll Kemosahbee. Both he and his backfield teammate Jaydon Blue reached similar levels of volume last year, and Blue actually finished with a better YPC (6.1 compared to Baxter’s 4.8).
Like Baxter, Blue was also a high profile recruit, and he has a year on C4. With the discrepancy in ADPs currently, it’s a no brainer to at the very least make sure you grab both if you’re hellbent on drafting C4 in the second/early third round.
As things currently stand, it is just as likely that Blue becomes the RB1, as it is that C4 does, or that there is an even split.
OREGON
RB1: Jordan James — ADP: 33 | RB2: Noah Whittington — ADP: 210
I know I wrote an article about James late last year, but I don’t like how high I see him being taken right now. Furthermore, his teammate Noah Whittington is not even being drafted in standard formats, and fairly late in non-standard environments.
Whittington was quite productive relative to his touches in 2023 before going down with injury, and he was pretty good in 2022 also, even receiving a 20 carry workload in one game, and surpassing 20 points in another.
As a refresher, Whittington joined in the 2022 offseason by way of Western Kentucky. James was a 2022 recruit, originally committed to UGA, and is a four star from Tennessee. The more I think about it, the more I’m starting to think this might be more of a split then we saw last year with Irving, who himself didn’t even really monopolize the carry volume.
Here’s an excerpt from a recent Oregon Duck beat report on the RB rotation:
It'll never be a one-man operation with Carlos Locklyn leading the way. He's relied upon two or three running backs in both his seasons with the Ducks, and 2024 should be no different.
While I've claimed [Jordan] James will be among the best in the conference next fall, the same could prove true of Noah Whittington. A season-ending knee injury cost him the final 10 games this past fall, but assuming he's able to return to full strength, he'll be a force as well, and a threat to pull the RB1 role from James.
EDIT: Locklyn has since moved on to Ohio State, so it remains to be seen what happens with OU’s next RBs coach. This could change things slightly, but overall, I still think there’s going to be a two or three-headed monster in 2024.
James will have to be incredibly efficient to justify his third round ADP to his shareholders. Especially considering Jay Harris figures to be involved too.
OHIO STATE
RB1: Quinshon Judkins — ADP: 47 | RB2: TreVeyon Henderson — ADP: 88
Speaking of Ohio State, someone’s going to have to explain this one to me: why is Judkins selected almost four rounds higher than Hendo? What are the differentiating factors we are relying on here?
Judkins was more productive in the last two seasons at Ole Miss than Hendo at OSU, so I understand that QJ would be the one who is prioritized first, however I don’t understand the discrepancy in rounds here.
This one is a no brainer for me because it was one of the more obvious situations where both players are going to be heavily involved. Neither of these players are draft-able to me for standard formats, but for Bestball, I’m choosing Hendo over QJ with that discount in price.
Added note: recent UMass transfer RB Kay’Ron Adams has been crystal ball’d on 247 Sports to the Ohio State Buckeyes.
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ADP numbers are quoted from Campus2Canton.com