Murders & Executions
The first of VP's 2026 STOCK DOWN reports.
I used to think that the day would never come, I'd see delight in the shade of the morning sun.
- New Order, band
For Valentine’s Day weekend this year I visited the French-Canadian city of Montreal with my wife. I’ve been several times, but it had been a while since my previous visit. I believe my wife had been once before. She told me, I’m sure, but I’ve already forgotten.
Vibes were good. The weather, thankfully, cooperated as we were spending a lot of time outdoors. I did almost get my wife killed in a ‘closed for winter’ section of Mont Royal Park that had frozen over into a glorified icy ski slope, which we ended up sliding down. After all, the Winter Olympics are currently on so we were feeling inspired. This ended up becoming one of the highlights of the trip as we clung to the side railing for dear life.
Another highlight of the trip was dinner that evening. A few days prior I made a reservation for two at a place around the corner from our hotel under one of my aliases. I wondered if they’d get the reference. They called the same day to confirm and I reaffirmed.
It wasn’t cheap but that’s to be expected. Frankly, I was just happy we managed to get a rezo, though a little disappointed that they didn’t have the sea urchin ceviche I had heard about from my friend Paul.
Anyways, the experience got me thinking about M&A—or, rather M&E, Murders & Executions. I wasn’t really sure what was happening. Within a few bites of the Couronne de Canard I began ruminating on the idea of getting myself a stack of business cards. But then of what shade would I choose? What font? Bone with Sicilian Rail? Eggshell with Romanian Type?
I pondered over these questions for awhile and then came the Tiramisu for dessert. It was delicate and sweet, but not too rich, which I prefer, and that’s when the thought occurred to me: Murders & Executions could be a good title for a stock down CFF report, which I haven’t done in awhile.
The staff sort of dropped the ball at the final stretch of our evening though, as we ended up waiting over 30 minutes from when we wanted to leave to when we actually left, despite my asking several of them to bring the machine so I could settle the bill. It was almost as if they didn’t want me to pay, which I would have been happy to oblige had the wait extended much longer. They didn’t even have my real name on file.
Regret flowed through me—I should have brought my trusted axe, I thought—because it was starting to look as if I’d have to put one through a staff member’s head just to get someone’s attention.
Unfortunately for those included on the list today, I’ve brought my handy axe with me and I’m ready to use it as we delve into five RB situations that make me queasy.
FRESNO STATE
I remember around this time last year feeling like I was lower on Bryson Donelson than the general CFF community.1 I eventually allowed myself to buy in following further investigation, and after we received updates out of camp about Donelson’s projected role within the new offence.
I ended up selecting him in one league—my most important—the Golden Pig Invitational, in the second round of the draft. This was a busted pick, as we all know by now (especially for those who did the same).
Though there were glimpses of hope early on. In fact, after week one I thought that this pick was going to be a massive hit. Donelson touched the rock 27 times total, accumulating nearly 200 yards and scoring once against a comparable team to what they’d see in conference: Georgia Southern.
However, the very next week he picked up an injury at the start of the game vs. Oregon State. I didn’t think he was the same after that. And maybe he was just never that good and the increased exposure over time revealed this, but I’m not convinced. I do believe he was playing hurt for the rest of the season.
Though it should also be pointed out that the run blocking was borderline horrendous. Watching Fresno State (which I’m ashamed to say I did quite a bit in 2025) was an incredibly painful experience. It was one of the worst offences I’ve ever subjected myself to. And that’s saying something (hello 2022 UTEP).
But a spark emerging from the wasteland was Rayshon “Speedy” Luke, the former four-star who originally committed to Arizona at one of those high school all-star games (might have been Under Armour All American?). Speedy never got the full workload, or even the workload Donelson often received, but he was much more efficient with his touches. About once a game he’d light off a big run, and he was also the better receiver of the two.
And then there was Brandon Ramirez, who—the statistics won’t show this, but those who watched know—looked like a better version of Donelson every time he touched the rock. When Donelson would get stuffed behind the line, or at the line of scrimmage for no gain, Ramirez would break through for positive yardage.
Watching the Fresno offence it felt like they could never get on schedule nor do something consistently well. They could not run the ball regularly for positive gains as Donelson was usually stuffed prior to the line of scrimmage and unable to break tackles. Ditto for Luke ninety-nine percent of the time. The Bulldogs essentially relied on him busting one to the outside every now and then as their “run offence”, which was incredibly janky to watch.
Unfortunately, all three of these players return this year with Fresno, likely meaning another split is incoming for 2026. The tragedy here is multifaceted. Donelson’s return from injury casts doubt about whether Luke will be given a larger share of the pie in 2026, let alone become the bellcow, as Donelson will presumably be healthy again; Luke and Ramirez’ superior performance in ‘25 makes it unlikely that Donelson will be regarded as “the guy” for 2026 either.
It’s hard to make an accurate assessment of Donelson’s ability as, once again, I do believe he was playing hurt for basically the entirety of 2025; however, plainly commenting on what I saw last fall: Speedy offers the best chance of a CFF stud from this group. In a world where Fresno improves offensive line play and decides to feature Luke with 15-20 touches per game (doesn’t all have to be carries), he could probably be really good.
I’d imagine they think he’s too small and injury prone to do that, and so that scenario probably isn’t going to materialize.
ULM
I’ve come to accept that we are never going to know who the ULM RB1 is ahead of time. And if you thought that taking a shotgun approach would work for you last year (e.g., picking ZPS and D’Shaun Ford), you still didn’t land on the right one to open the year. Congratulations.
We really should look at it like this: there are six or seven RBs in ULM’s room including walk-ons each year. Picking a ULM RB gives you a 1/7, or 2/7 chance to get it right. And we are almost always picking blindly, since very little, if any, information escapes out of Monroe, Louisiana.
It is, I believe, the FBS’ poorest program. There is no media coverage of the happenings within the Warhawks’ facility, and even worse—when we do get a data point like a depth chart released for week one, it is often sickeningly wrong.
Yes, Bryant Vincent (head coach) has a great system for RB production. But if you don’t know ahead of time who’s going to be getting the workload, then you’re just throwing sand up in the air, expecting it to come down as a sand castle (shoutout Eric Tao).
In fact, this phenomenon is prominent enough to warrant it’s own axiom, which I’m calling: The Vincentian Porcine Illusion, or “VPI”, for short.
It’s already becoming clear who the early contender for this season’s VPI will be: former Miami/Louisville/UNCC runner Donald Chaney, who if you can believe, was actually rated a five star at one point in his recruiting cycle. My my, times have changed. I do believe he was kicked off UNCC shortly before the 2025 season for mysterious reasons. That’s never good.
My advice would be to stay the hell away from this year’s VPI, unless it’s like, round 25+ in a bestball draft. History says that the true bellcow is probably going to be one of the names none of us are thinking about right now. So get ready to learn the name Trevon Kinchen! Or Derrick Jameson, or Julian Walker, or Hagen Herring etc… you get the point.
TEXAS
The Longhorns brought in two transfers at RB this offseason in former ASU/USC runner Raleek Brown and former NCST/OU runner Daylen Smothers. These goofy bastards have more money than sense.
Beyond the fact that it’s a crowded room once again with no clear path for a bell cow to emerge, the system under Sark for the past two seasons has been a bust for CFF production. In fact, this trend disturbed me to such a degree that I wrote about it here:
Bond Vigilantism
It's the erosion of the perception of rule of law which keeps investors at bay. Structurally we do feel that the regime is shifting. People prefer corporate balance sheets which are in better shape than some sovereigns.
If one of Brown or Smothers could put the axe to the other à la Bateman vs. Allen then we’d have a good thing brewing here. In the absence of that happening, I just don’t see a reason to be drafting either with the current information we have.
The counter argument is that maybe Texas goes 2025-Notre Dame mode with not one, but two productive runners. Maybe, but I’m not betting on it. And even if that does materialize, it’ll be hard to know ahead of time who’s going to have the big game each week in re-draft leagues.
FLORIDA STATE
Folks need to get the memory of Mike Norvell’s Memphis tenure out of their minds already. It’s been over half a decade since he’s had a true bellcow at RB, and I don’t see that changing in 2026.
Furthermore, the one coach on staff who offered a glimpse of hope that a potential swine might emerge in Tallahassee (Gus Malzahn), has retired.
In fact it’s probably more likely at this point that this whole thing blows up in 2026, and Norvell gets canned midway through the campaign, rather than FSU featuring a workhorse in their offence.
In terms of personnel, players who will get drafted this offseason include Tre Wisner and Ousmane Kromah. I am a fan of OJ da OusMANE’s talent, and word through the grapevine is that he’s one of the highest paid players on FSU’s roster, but that isn’t enough for me to prioritize him in drafts. My position on FSU RBs will remain as it has been for the past four or five seasons: I’m out.
KANSAS
This is a similar situation to Texas, where we have once again a crowded room via transfer and a coach who’s reputation may be exceeding him in his current form.
Leipold is the architect of one of the most legendary run-offences of all time, the 2019-2020 UB Bulls. That being said, it’s been five years since that mythopoeic campaign. That’s not to say that Leipold’s time in Lawrence, KS has been bad, but more so: I’d assert that his system is simply a good but not great one for CFF performance now that he’s at the P4 level.
Devin Neal was good, and at times great during his four year stay with the program. As was Hishaw (when available) in his sole season donning the Blue and Red.
My point is that this is a good system, but no longer the god-tier system it briefly became at the tail end of Leipold’s UB career.
What is more troubling, however, is the volume of incoming transfers this offseason at the RB position. 2025 bust Dylan Edwards is moving across state (well, an hour’s drive east, more or less). As do former RB1s Yasin Willis (SYR) and former Jalen Dupree (CSU).
I understand adding another runner on top of Edwards given what we’ve seen (or not seen) from him thus far in his career. He’s as likely to break down at some point as I am triple taping RBs in an offseason mock draft. But now we have to consider both Willis and Dupree, who were both bellcow-lites at their previous programs.
This is a situation I don’t want to touch unless there are some serious indicators in favour of one RB getting the lion’s share of carries from spring or fall camp. ◾
CFF = College Fantasy Football. You can find leagues on Fantrax.com