The Dawn of a New Premium Pig

The Cedric Baxter news got you feeling Blue? Here's a few things to keep in mind...

How long until opportunity meets preparation?

- Nipsey Hussle, musician (RIP)

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Isn’t it just perfect timing that on the heels of my worldwide and critically acclaimed release of the final CFF rankings for 2024, that we would have an absolute bombshell dropped on us a few hours later? Well, that’s the world of College Football I’m afraid. Can’t handle the heat? It might be time to head back to kindergarten pal (also known as the NFL).

CFF is the game where the real players play. No more training wheels needed. And like every OG CFFer worth his salt knows, August can be a time of tremendous boom and bust movement on player valuations.

A few seasons ago, a young man by the name of Lew Nichols finished as CFF’s RB1 across all formats. Nichols, a 10+ round ADP selection, was a seemingly unlikely candidate ahead of time playing at CMU. Except, he wasn’t really, was he? The catalyst for his mismatch in ADP to upside ratio was his teammate—Kobe Lewis, suffering an ACL injury late in fall camp. As unfortunate as that was, it did pave the way for many (including yours truly) to absolutely decimate their CFF pools.

Now, in an ominously similar ordeal, one of Texas’ presumed challengers for the starting RB spot, Cedric Baxter—a former five star recruit from Florida—has been announced as ‘out’ for the 2024 season due to a knee injury sustained in fall camp. In other words, Jaydon Blue is suddenly everybody’s favourite player (can you hear that? It’s “I'm Blue” by Eiffel 65 blasting out of every man cave across North America right now). In fact, Fantrax has already updated their PPG projection to 15+ for Blue.

One of the things about being a content creator, especially one that says a lot of things on the internet, is that you end up having so many takes on everything, that no matter what happens you can drudge up an old tweet of yours somewhere, or an article, or whatever else to make yourself look good when things like this happen. You might have already encountered some of this on ‘X’. Of course, all of those people who tweeted about Blue in the spring all knew Baxter was going to go down with a season-ending injury, right?

Yea… no. Nobody saw this coming ahead of time. And if you’re lucky enough to have handcuffed Baxter with Blue, or just took a shot on Blue (like that bastard Nate Marchese in my home league… I swear he’s the luckiest man in CFF), well, congratulations.

For those who haven’t drafted yet (which I assume includes many of you), you might now be wondering: how long do I wait to draft Blue in light of this news? On one hand, his pure valuation probably puts in him the top three round discussion. On the other, do your league mates even know what has transpired here? If not, you could probably wait till much later.

I’ll attempt to shed some light on navigating this situation, and also provide some thoughts on how I’d approach valuing Blue in light of Baxter’s injury. The logical place to start would be by looking at the coaching staff, which is the main selling point in Blue’s profile.

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Coaching & System

RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 23.29 — OC: 23.79¹ (half ppr)

So, I’ve written a lot of these, as you all know, and I’ve seen a lot of PPG averages across different positions under different staffs. My first thought when I saw UT’s RB1 averages was “holy shit”. These are “holy shit” PPG averages at RB, there’s no doubt about it. But, is anybody surprised by this?

You shouldn’t be if you’ve been playing CFF the last few seasons. Bijan Robinson was a killer for two seasons in a row (2021-22). Jonathan Brooks did very well last year before injury. I know for a fact that Najee Harris was the apex pig of 2020 because I had him rostered (real OGs won’t forget that Ole Miss game), and his output isn’t even included in the sample due to it being the COVID season.

Below you can find the historical averages of both the head coach, Steve Sarkisian, who coached at Alabama before taking on Texas, and his OC, Kyle Flood, who’s been with him ever since.

Table 1.

You can see that Bijan commanded basically 20 carries per game during his heyday. That was quite literally by design, Sark explicitly said in the 2021 offseason that they wanted to get him 20 carries per contest, and then later said “whatever is needed” when asked about Bijan’s workload. Atta boy Sark.

Bijan has obviously left, and so has his successor, Jonathan Brooks, who was well on his way to a top ten CFF finish before injury. But the mindset of the staff lives on.

In the case of UT’s RBs, a big component of their value in years past has been via the air. All three of Najee Harris, Bijan Robinson, and Jonathan Brooks were utilized in the passing game. In fact, you’ll see that some of those RBs averaged over three targets per game, which added another 30 yards, and a score just under once every two games onto their rushing total. Sounds good to me, I’ll take that any day…

Table 2.

Given that Flood has been attached at the hip with Sark, their play calling tendencies are nearly identical. This staff averages about a 54/46 split in favour of the run. The historical rush attempt percentage of the RB1 is a tantalizing 45%, or, nearly half of all of the team’s rushing attempts (yeah, that’s what 45% means, VP, thanks).

In terms of team pace, there were a lot of Texas teams that moved very fast last year, but the Longhorns weren’t one of them. They moved at a good clip though, checking in at 52nd in the FBS with an average of 25.5 seconds per play run.

The most important ‘system’ or infrastructure stat of all though might be this one: UT returns just over 80% of the OL snaps from a year ago. Even Bijan Robinson, the alpha pig that he was, couldn’t overcome UT’s piss poor offensive line play in 2021. He was productive, sure, but the hits wore on him and he dwindled down the stretch. 2022 was better, and 2023 was definitely better. The 2024 unit should be the best one yet.

It’s a line that includes multiple former five star prospects, many of whom have been playing since their freshman and sophomore years. Indeed, in a state that prides itself on the slogan “everything is bigger in Texas”, they outta have an offensive line that embodies that. We can check that box off.

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Jaydon Blue (6’0, 200)

How many of you remember Jaydon Blue in high school? Probably not many. Blue was somewhat of a trendsetter by announcing he’d be sitting out of his senior year of high school. He’s a member of the class of 2022, and pledged to Texas during his junior year.

Here is what our boy Gabe Brooks said about Blue coming out of high school:

Adequate height and requisite bulk with a prototypical running back build. Above-average length could allow for more mass.

Outstanding production as a junior with 6 of 11 games 200-plus yards and 9.5 yards per carry facing strong competition. Played with impressive contact balance and run-finishing ability. Displays functional run strength beyond listed size. Slippery strong and has repeatedly shown ability to break multiple tackles and maximize runs.

Big-play speed verified by multiple 100-meter times faster than 11.00, including a junior-year 10.70. Flashes impressive redirection with quick-footed suddenness in the hole. Doesn't have to gear down much to change directions and bursts off cuts. Unique ability to vary run style from juker to glider to finisher as needed.

Caught the ball well during Spring/Summer 2021 select 7-on-7 competition, but limited pass-catching reps in live games. Top-end play speed is good but at times may not live up to sub-11.00 track speed. Did not play entire senior season (not injury-related).

Could prove to be an elite back in the 2022 class. Projects as a high-major impact starter with long-term NFL Draft early-round potential.

Blue is entering his third year of CFB after playing in a reserve role for his first two seasons. His best statistical output was in 2023, where he carried the rock 65 times for 398 yards and three scores. Despite limited touches, he actually finished with outputs of 21.5, 16.1, and 20.4 in 1PPR formats… Huh? I remember him having some moments last year, but I definitely do not remember that.

Of course, Blue’s lack of reps isn’t really his fault. He spoke to this during this offseason:

Two years ago, I was behind two guys that are in the NFL now,” said Blue, who actually was sitting behind three in Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson and Jonathon Brooks. “And even last year I was behind a group of guys. So I’m just learning from those guys. You sit back, taking on that role.

“The thing Bijan told me was to always stay patient and let the game come to me,” Blue said. “I was highly ranked coming out of high school, of course, and him telling me that taught me how to stay patient and just waiting on my turn.”

“And he went to the league after the one year,” Blue said. “Just saying that. I always look back at that, and it puts a lot of belief in me.”

Correction, Bijan went to the league after two years starting, but that’s neither here nor there. His point is well taken: at elite programs, you need only one big year to strike gold. And by all indications, Blue has that opportunity now.

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Closing

Once a man who may have been written off as someone who would be overshadowed by the two highly rated RBs, he now seems to be in the right place at the right time. If Blue is going to receive 20 touches per game (as is customary under this coaching staff), then count me in.

However, it should be noted that Texas, like any major program, has other RBs besides Baxter and Blue. It is not a guaranteed conclusion that Blue will immediately take over the starting position. They may also opt for a committee approach due to concerns about depth. We also do not have much information about Blue's skill level, but we have seen some glimpses at least.

As far as how to approach drafting Blue, some thoughts for you: if you draft him in the top three rounds, you are not getting any surplus value. His profile is similar to some of the others taken in that range, but not better than a lot of them in my opinion. I would still take guys like Malik Sherrod, Devin Neal and Tahj Brooks over Blue (especially in standard leagues), just based on proven production.

Part of the reason everybody is so excited about Blue is because many of them locked him in at a 12th+ round ADP, or are hoping to still get him at a discount. If you can get Blue in around his old ADP (140, basically the 12th round) then absolutely go for it. Even at a round 5+ range you’re still getting a discount.

But Blue drafters should keep a few things in mind: 1) Tre Wisner, who’s had a good offseason, will have an opportunity too; 2) Blue has yet to show that he can be a bellcow; and 3) UT may adjust to Baxter’s absence by skewing more towards a pass-first outfit. There are, in fact, lean years even in a kingmaker like Sark’s repertoire. ◾

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