If Lamar Jackson Played RB, Isaac Brown is Who You'd Get
A friendly reminder that you should always recruit skill players from Florida 🍊
All I know about you is that you drive a Testarossa and you live on a boat.
- Christine von Marburg, Miami Vice (1984 - 1989)
You’ve heard me say it a million times now: you’ll never go broke betting on players from Florida. The Louisville Cardinals clearly get the memo here; between Alabama transfer Ja’Corey Brooks, and freshman RB Isaac Brown, there was a whole lot of Florida going on in L&N Stadium during the year 2024.
Indeed, when you look at how many future NFLers the Sunshine State produces every year—particularly outside of the typical four and five star group of prospects—it’s a wonder why more programs don’t dedicate more resources down there.
In fact, when you look at college football’s stat leaders from this past season, you’ll notice that two of the top six leading rushers (Ashton Jeanty and RJ Harvey), and two of the five receivers including the Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, as well as Jeremiah Smith, were born in Florida.
And OK, maybe it’s a technicality that both Jeanty and Hunter moved elsewhere to play high school ball (Texas for Jeanty, Georgia for Hunter), but the point still stands. There’s something mystical in the water flowing through this state—and I’m not just talking about illicit white powders coming in from Central America.
Furthermore, the two above mentioned runners stand out to me as it relates to today’s article. Both players were rated as composite three stars on 247 Sports in their respective classes. In fact, both players were rated outside the top 1000(!) prospects in their classes.
Does this remind you of anyone? Well, Louisville’s three star rising sophomore from Homestead, FL, RB Isaac Brown, fits the profile. As did Louisville’s first and only Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson, who was rated a composite three star QB in the class of 2015 out of Boynton Beach.
Lamar was a live wire with the football in his hands—he moved at a different speed than everyone else. Today’s player, Isaac Brown, has an element of Lamar Jackson to his game. Yet another live wire with the football in his hands from Florida, Brown also demonstrated incredible speed in his freshman season last year.
The speed wouldn’t have come as a surprise to the Louisville faithful, as Brown posted a sub 11.00 second 100 meter time (10.89) in the spring before his junior season of high school. He competed at a high level in long jump events as well within the state of Florida. Oh and yes, in case you were wondering, my sources have confirmed Brown has been given the #1 jersey number for his sophomore season.
Needless to say, this is an elite athlete we are talking about today, regardless of the three star rating. Here’s what Andrew Ivins of 247 Sports had to say about Brown as a prospect:
A new-age scatback that has also proven to be one of the top return men in the 2024 cycle with multiple special teams touchdowns on the highlight reel.
Naturally low center of gravity combined with elite burst makes it extremely difficult for defenders to get him on the ground. Rather elusive when he gets to the second level and has shown that he can make cuts at full speed without really having to gear down.
On the smaller side, but isn’t one that tries to shy away from contact. Was utilized in a variety of different ways for a Homestead program that made back-to-back appearances in Florida’s 3M title game and caught a pair of touchdown passes in his final outing at the prep level.
Needs to cut down on the fumbles and get better at protecting the football, but projects as a potential YAC machine at the Power Five level that can help supplement the passing attack while also trying to flip the field via the return game.
Ivins appears to have nailed this eval (at least, after one season). I won’t pretend to have watched Brown in high school, but through his college tape he does appear to be a very shifty player with elite speed to my untrained eye. He contributed on special teams with 11 returns for 193 yards, but where he really made his freshman impact was in seizing the RB1 role and running with it (pun intended).
To put things in perspective: Brown became only the second Power Four true freshman in the CFP era to rush for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging at least 7 yards per carry. The other player in that group is Georgia’s Nick Chubb.
Now, as we enter year two, could Brown be poised to have a Lamar Jackson-esque historical season for this program? Or a sophomore slump like the aforementioned Chubb? As usual, let’s take a look at the historical patterns of the staff to gain a better understanding of what to expect going forward.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 13.4 — OC: 13.41 (half ppr)
You may notice from Table 1. below that the OC and HC share the same last name. Contrary to what you might believe, this is not a coincidence. Brian is the brother of Jeff and has been literally attached at the hip over the last seven seasons.
The Brohms were known for WR king making during their time at Purdue, with the list of notable names including Rondale Moore, David Bell and Charlie Jones. However, the RB alumni are not as impressive; or rather, the outputs per season of these players are not as impressive.
This changed when the Brohms transitioned to Louisville. Starting in year one (2023), the RB1 under this staff finally broke the 200-CFF point threshold via Jawhar Jordan’s 1100 yard rushing season that included 14 total scores and an additional 246 yards receiving. That’ll do it.
They followed that up with another 200-point RB1 in this past season’s Isaac Brown, who didn’t even see significant volume until week four, where he broke out with an 18 opportunity game vs. Notre Dame. He paid the Cards back with 72 yards rushing, four receptions for 23 yards and a score (19.5 points) in that game.
We can also see from the RB1’s PPG average in Table 1. that—whether by design or due to personnel—the offensive pattern of the RB position under this staff has improved in the two season sample we have at our disposal.
Previously, this was not a notable RB-friendly system for CFF drafters. Things have clearly changed; in fact last season’s RB2, Duke Watson outperformed Purdue’s 2021 RB1, and nearly the 2019 one as well.
And the play calling reflects this. At Purdue, in the last four full seasons Brohm’s Boilermakers averaged splits of 56/44 (2018), 60/40 (2019), 60/40 (2021), and 55/45 (2022) all in favour of the pass.
In the two seasons at Louisville, his offences averaged splits of 43/57 (2023) and 51/49 (2024). The 2023 season clearly being the most run-heavy of any of the Brohm-led offences since 2018. Even the more balanced attack in 2024 is a departure from what we saw at Purdue.
Due to the increased emphasis on running the football, the seconds per play data of the offence has also shifted. At Purdue, Brohm’s offence operated anywhere between 22 and 25 seconds per play. With the Cards, his offence has averaged 27.8 and 26.8 seconds per play.
How has this difference manifested itself? Brohm’s Boilermakers would run over 70 plays per game most seasons (a high of 74 in 2021 and 2022). With Louisville he’s running 66 and 67 plays per game.
Closing
Isaac Brown is an interesting player for CFF purposes in 2025. The range of outcomes is actually quite wide in my opinion. I currently rate him as a top-10 RB in my re-draft rankings, but there is risk with his profile when drafting him as your RB1.
For one, this staff’s wider experience beyond Louisville paints a different picture of what they typically like to do with the tailback position. This was already covered in some detail in the last section.
The second and more important concern is that Brown’s freshman teammate, Duke Watson, also had a standout season last year. Watson rushed 67 times for 597 yards and seven scores. He’s not quite the receiving threat that Brown is, adding only five receptions for 60 yards and a score to his total in 2024.
However, on an efficiency basis he was better than Brown, which is not shocking considering Brown handled over double the workload. But it is worth noting that there is another runner on the roster who looked really good in the action that he got.
Add that to a staff that has not had a RB see 200 or more carries in a season since 2017, and it’s not an ideal scenario. I wouldn’t bet on Brown to buck that trend in 2025, but with his receiving work he should be able to hit or surpass the 220 touch threshold, which puts him firmly in the top-10 CFF RB discussion.
Particularly for this year’s group, which is a weak returning RB class from a CFF context, Brown going in the first/early second rounds of drafts is not unreasonable.
That being said, if we go back further in time to when Brohm was at Western Kentucky, one of his RBs, Leon Allen (2014), finished the season with over 320 touches (270 carries). So there is a future outcome where lightning strikes twice and Brown gets what I’ll call “the Allen treatment,” which would put him in pole position to finish as 2025’s CFF RB1 in my opinion.
Judging from the updates out of camp, this doesn’t seem like such a far fetched outcome. Here’s one update where the RBs coach is talking about Brown’s development this offseason:
There's more that we can achieve as he puts on weight and gains mass and muscle strength,” said Barclay of Brown, who added 6 pounds during the offseason. “I think he can start to power through some of those tackles that may last year have resulted in 4 more yards, and maybe now results in 40 more. And now, we're in the end zone. So, we're just trying to add elements to the game that they already have. It's exciting when you have that much talent already.
As I said, the range of outcomes for Brown is wide. It all really depends on whether the staff gives him the touches like Leon Allen got, or if they’re going to elevate Duke Watson’s touches as well. ◾
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Sample from 2018-2024 excluding 2020.
Duke will certainly get as many touches as last year and likely a 4-6 touch bump.