The Next One Up in a Long Lineage of Pigs
It's been awhile since the pig signal was lit in Salt Lake City, could 2024 be the year we've been waiting for?
You gettin' skinny, I'm gettin' chunky…
- Kodak Black, musician
The teachings of the old, wise ones who came before us offer a timeless reservoir of knowledge, guiding us through the complexities of life with lessons that have endured across generations. That holds true in the game of CFF too. Speak to any of the CFF wisemen of old, and one of the pearls of wisdom you’ll receive is “you’ll never go broke betting on players from Florida”.
Clearly, Kyle Whittingham subscribes to this philosophy as well, as his Utes have tapped into the Sunshine State on numerous occasions via the trail. One such player who was brought across the country is former Lakeland legend Jaylon Glover. Then there’s redshirt freshman Michael Mitchell, out of Orange Park. And of course, who can forget second ballot VP HoF’er Zack Moss, from Hallandale.
Last year was not the year CFF diehards were hoping for with the Utes RB room. A position group that has long been held in high esteem amongst degenerate CFF players worldwide, Texas transfer Ja’Quinden Jackson failed to cash in on the lofty expectations that were bestowed upon him in the 2023 offseason. Jackson is now an Arkansas Razorback, leaving what appears to be a wide open…. opening(?) in what has historically been a productive system for the RB position.
Here’s what OC Andy Ludwig had to say about the room to open spring ball:
There's good talent in that room, it's a competitive young group but they've got to grow up fast . . . We know what Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover are all about, we believe Mike Mitchell is going to provide –we hope– some power and size in the backfield. Dijon Stanley, unbelievable juice and energy, tremendous skillset there. We're looking for development out of John Randle Jr., he's played for us a little bit but we're looking for him to step up. We have Charlie Vincent still available to us, as well as a couple walk-ons, and just feel really good about the group.
The RBs coach, Quinton Ganther, also commented on a few standouts in camp:
Micah [Bernanrd] is super bright, like he is super bright, the moment is not ever too big for him . . . No matter who we're playing, no matter what it is, he is locked in no matter what. He sees things before it happens, he has a really good recall –like if a play happened, he can tell you exactly what happened, why he did what he did, he knows the playbook inside and out, just his knowledge of the game is spectacular.
Jaylon [Glover] actually did have a hell of a second half of the season. He had me worried early because he was not playing well and he knows that," Ganther shared. "But that second half of the season, I think he just calmed down and came into his own, he was playing really well. So, I'm hoping for him to pick up right where he left off. He picks up right where he left off and keeps going, he'll have a hell of a season.
I think Mike [Mitchell[ can be a good player for us. He's grown in the aspect that he's starting to take things more seriously because he knows he now has a chance to be in the mix. I just don't want to give those [young] guys much credit yet because they haven't done anything but I'm looking forward to seeing what he does this spring. I'm just not going to give credit where it's not due.
According to one Utah Utes beat reporter, one young player that has generated a lot of buzz since the conclusion of the season is Mike Mitchell.
Easy to see why there has been a buzz around Mike Mitchell since the conclusion of the season. He had a handful of impressive runs inside early on in our media session. He seems to have good size, displayed great feet and movement qualities. Ran inside and outside. Obviously, it'll be important to see him in pads but he nailed the first impression this offseason.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham also got in on the fun, commenting around the 1:40 mark.
Later in the offseason (first week of August), Whittingham provided a further update on the pecking order:
When asked about the running back competition, Head Coach Kyle Whittingham said, "Micah Bernard remains at the top of the RB competition but Mike Mitchell is “on his heels” and has really started to emerge."
And another report mentioned that Mitchell was a potential breakout candidate in 2024:
Recently, you might have heard the name Mike Mitchell mentioned among potential breakout candidates for the Utah Utes in 2024.
Despite already spending a full season with the team, Mitchell’s name and ability have largely flown under the radar.
I recently dropped my final CFF rankings for the year, and in it, I included Mitchell’s name. In fact, I even evoked the name of Ollie Gordon as a comparison. Gordon, entering 2023 as a true sophomore, had done much more in his true freshman season than Mitchell had. So from that sense it’s not an exact comparison.
What is similar is that with Mitchell you have a young player who has generated a lot of buzz in a historically productive system. And if he does emerge, he probably won’t do so until late September or early October. In that sense, if you draft Mitchell, you will need the resolve to hold him before he cashes out (if he ever does in the first place), similar to OGII last year with the Pokes.
Also unlike Gordon, Mitchell still has to contend with two veteran names ahead of him on the depth chart currently in Micah Bernard and Jaylon Glover. Nonetheless, there’s a lot of buzz around Mitchell, and we should probably take a deeper look at what the numbers say.
Coaching & System
RB1 PPG AVERAGE — HC: 15.6 — OC: 15.51 (half ppr)
There are few programs in collegiate athletics that can boast the stability and consistency that the Utes have had under the current regime. Whittingham’s been the head master since 2005, but he’s been a coach with the program since the year 1994! His only other coaching experience comes via a few defensive stints with Idaho State, BYU and Eastern Utah in the 80s and early 90s. You think this guy likes the Northwest?
Of his 18 full seasons (excluding 2020) with the Utes, there have been 12 seasons with a 1000-yard rusher. That track record has made this backfield one to watch from a CFF perspective each year. Whittingham’s five year average (as shown in Table 1.) bares this out as well, as his RB1 averages over 80 yards per game and a hair under 15 carries (keeping in mind the last two seasons have been committees).
The OC, Andy Ludwig, isn’t quite the kingmaker at RB that his boss is, but he’s not bad either. Miraculously, his Commodoers supported RB KeShawn Vaughn to a 1000-yard rushing season in 2018, as Vaughn averaged over 100 yards and a score per game on an average of only 13(!) carries per game. You know, efficiency is what you think of when you think of Vanderbilt, right? It’s all those doormat programs in the SEC that they beat up on. Fucking hell—1000 yards with only 13 carries per game? I still can’t believe that.
Ludwig’s time with the Utes has been less fruitful. He had no choice but to feature three-time 1000-yard rusher Zack Moss in 2019, but almost every year after that has been a committee. Tavion Thomas broke through in 2021, and so did Ty Jordan in 2020 before his unfortunate passing. Both the 2022 and 2023 seasons were a wash at the position.
However—the last two seasons aside—this is not just a historically productive system that is now more bark than bite. Whittingham and Ludwig both average close to a 60/40 split in run vs. pass play calling over the last five seasons; and both average over 30% carry share for their RB1s in the same time frame. The problem as I see it is that they haven’t had a runner like Zack Moss or KeShawn Vaughn emerge. You can only do so much as a play caller, and if the guy isn’t in the room, then he isn’t in the room.
And that could be the case again this year, as we have three runners (Micah Bernard, Mike Mitchell, Jaylon Glover) who could all be involved. The latest buzz is that the Utes will take a committee approach to open the season. However, if someone takes the torch and runs with it, then I’m guessing that the approach will revert back to the historical patterns at this position.
Utah moved at a below average pace last year with 28.8 seconds per play, which ranked 114th in the FBS. They return 54% of the snaps on the offensive line.
Mike Mitchell (6’0, 211)
2023 STATS: NA
Mitchell is a redshirt freshman who appeared in only one game last year, but did not register any stats. The former three star from Florida has been garnering a lot of praise this offseason, however, which is something you should take note of. Here’s yet another report on Mitchell:
As a starter for Oakleaf and Middleburg HS in Florida, Mitchell finished his career with 240 carries for 2,002 yards. The Florida native’s junior season was by far his best, rushing for 1,378 yards and 18 touchdowns in just eight games.
While the volume isn't as eye-popping as some high school standouts, Mitchell was glaringly efficient, rushing for 8.3 yards per carry, 22 touchdowns, with nine 100-yard games. Moreover, with 22 rushing touchdowns in 240 attempts, nearly 10 percent (9.2%) of his high school carries resulted in a touchdown.
Mitchell’s commitment to Utah came as somewhat of a surprise after in-state programs such as Florida State and Florida made a late push to sign the star back. Despite pressure from these programs, Mitchell remained steadfast, citing Utah’s versatility in running back usage as a key factor in his commitment.
"I love the way they utilize the running backs...They use them to run the ball, catch the ball, and that's what I like to do. That's what I do now. I play slot and I can run the ball and that's why Utah likes me so much is because I'm very versatile. I can do it all and that's what Utah does...the running backs basically do everything. That's why I committed there..."
“Doing it all” is exactly what we like to hear. Mitchell—similar to Minnesota’s Darius Taylor—played some receiver in high school and that suggests that he should be an able pass-catcher out of the backfield. What went unmentioned there is Mitchell’s pass blocking ability. That—despite our infatuation with a runners rushing ability—is typically the make-or-break factor in whether a runner stays on the field all game.
As the above excerpt suggests, he received attention from other P4 programs such as Florida State and Florida in high school, in addition to others like Iowa State, Louisville and Washington State. He was also a track star in high school, clocking in a 10.81 100-meter dash in spring 2022.
Closing
I drafted Mike Mitchell last year in CFFNate’s dynasty league. Of course, I ended up dropping him for more current production during the season. Do you want to take a guess at who picked him up? Yep, that bastard CFFNate. Un-fucking-real.
Mitchell currently holds no ADP data according to Campus2Canton across any format. He’s a player that you probably won’t hold onto even if you do draft him in a re-draft, but like Ollie Gordon in 2023, you will want to monitor this backfield closely through September. Of course, your old pal VP will have you updated on the Pig Market reports, but you should also keep a vigilant eye yourself for the pig signal.
Mitchell is a player who holds enormous upside due to the historical production of the system he plays in. I also like that the Utes play in the BIG12 now vs. say… the B1G, which was a possibility at one point. Looking at their schedule, their toughest opponents are probably Iowa State and Oklahoma State, which is pretty hilarious.
They’ve got a great slate, and the system is begging for a pig to emerge. The last great one to do so for multiple seasons was Florida native Zack Moss. Could we be on the cusp of a similar storyline in 2024? ◾
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Sample of 2018-2023.